Will Lido Upset the Beaugay Stakes?

Saturday’s $200,000 Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont Park might be packed with proven stakes winners, but in handicapping the race, I’m drawn to one of the up-and-comers.

Held at 8.5 furlongs over the inner turf course, the Beaugay has attracted seven starters, and at first glance the race looks wide open. #2 Inflexibility could start as the favorite based off her wins in the Wonder Where Stakes and Carotene Stakes on turf at Woodbine last year, and she signaled her readiness for the 2018 season by decisively winning an allowance race over this distance at Aqueduct last month. But the graded stakes winner #1 My Impression could also be tough after finishing fourth with a poor pace setup in the Plenty of Grace Stakes last time out, and #6 A Raving Beauty—a Group 1-placed runner in Italy—could attract some wagering support in her U.S. debut.

But despite the quality of the field, I’m rather intrigued by the less-heralded Kiaran McLaughlin-trained filly Lido. The daughter of Street Cry finished fourth in a couple of quality stakes races as a three-year-old last year, but has really stepped up her game this season, winning a pair of allowance races at Gulfstream and Keeneland with sharp runs from just off the pace.

I was particularly impressed by Lido’s performance at Keeneland last month. Facing a strong field that included the stakes winners Niigon’s Eclipse, Con Te Partiro, and Dynatail, Lido found herself in a pocket along the rail early on and had to wait in traffic around the far turn, but once an opening appeared, Lido shot through with an eye-catching burst of acceleration to challenge Niigon’s Eclipse for the lead. The latter tried to battle back as they flew through the fourth quarter-mile in :23.66, but Lido always appeared to have the edge and won by a bit less than a length in a solid time that yielded a 93 BRIS speed figure.

With two wins from two starts this year, Lido appears to be on the rise, and the acceleration that she displayed at Keeneland is the mark of a promising filly. I think Lido can step up to beat this field and secure her first stakes victory.

Since Lido could be overlooked in the wagering, let’s bet her to win and play her in the exacta with My Impression, Inflexibility, and #7 Team of Teams. We’ll try to beat A Raving Beauty, who has spent the majority of her career racing in Italy and Germany, where the competition isn’t quite as tough as in other parts of Europe. Her career-best 104 Racing Post Rating suggests that she might need to step up to compete at this level.

$9 to win on #4 Lido $4 exacta: 4 with 1,2,7 ($12) $3 exacta: 1,2,7 with 4 ($9)

Good luck!