Win $1 Million Betting to Show
Note: If two or more horses were tied for the same position, their rankings were averaged. For example, if two horses tied for the top spot in a particular category, each was assigned a ranking of 1 ½ (average of positions 1 and 2); if three horses tied for the top spot, each was assigned a ranking of 2 (average of positions 1, 2 and 3); and so on and so on.
Next, I looked for the 2-3 horses that earned the best median late speed rations (LSRs) in their last three starts:
Better, but still nothing to write home about. I followed this test up with one seeking the best median Brisnet speed figures:
After that, I tested the Brisnet Power Ratings, which resulted in numbers very similar to those obtained above:
Lastly, I turned to the bettors for clues. First, I examined the actual post-time odds. Then, I studied the morning-line favorites:
Shockingly, concentrating on the top two horses with the lowest morning line odds proved to be the most effective means of determining which horses were likely to finish in-the-money (among the methods I tested). However, let’s utilize as many of these techniques as possible on Saturday’s big races and see if we can reach a consensus choice in both the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth.
Let’s start with the former:
2/23/13 FAIR GROUNDS (FG)
RACE 10 * RISEN STAR STAKES * 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
Top two median LSRs: 9-Normandy Invasion (-4) and 14-Departing (-5).
Top two median BSFs: 6-Palace Malice (101) and 4-Code West (97).
Top two Brisnet Power Ratings: 6-Palace Malice (141.0) and 9-Normandy Invasion (140.3).
Top two morning-line choices: 9-Normandy Invasion (5/2) and 10-Oxbow (5/1).
If name repetition means anything, Normandy Invasion looks like the best show candidate in this spot, as he’s ranked among the top two in several categories. I’m particularly impressed with his late speed rations, given that Fair Grounds — and this prep in particular — tends to favor horses that can motor home late.
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Free Weekend Win Factor Reports (with suggested plays)
FRIDAY (02/22/12)
Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Hawthorne
Tampa Bay Downs
SATURDAY (02/23/12)
Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Gulfstream Park
If name repetition means anything, Normandy Invasion looks like the best show candidate in this spot, as he’s ranked among the top two in several categories. I’m particularly impressed with his late speed rations, given that Fair Grounds — and this prep in particular — tends to favor horses that can motor home late.
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(Click on image to enlarge)
Free Weekend Win Factor Reports (with suggested plays)
FRIDAY (02/22/12)
Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Hawthorne
Tampa Bay Downs
SATURDAY (02/23/12)
Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Gulfstream Park
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