Wonder Wheel is the best Kentucky Oaks longshot
Wonder Wheel, with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, wins the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies for trainer Mark Casse at Keeneland Race Course. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)
May 5th, 2023
A full field of three-year-old fillies will compete in Friday’s much-anticipated 149th Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs.
The well-matched cast is led by two Brad Cox trainees, #7 Wet Paint (5-2) and #6 Botanical (4-1), who will be formidable foes if they put forth their respective best efforts in the 1 1/8-mile affair. I admittedly like the duo quite a bit in the feature, and I also have a positive view on third-choice #4 Southlawn (8-1).
But for those looking for a horse at double-digit odds that seems capable of taking down this field, it has to be champion #5 Wonder Wheel (12-1) for conditioner Mark Casse.
The dark bay commenced her career beneath the Twin Spires in the summer and left quite an impression at the venue, as she rallied to a debut victory prior to leading at every call when posting a 6 3/4-length tally in the Debutante S. She suffered her lone setback of 2022 when finishing a nice second in the Spinaway S. (G1), prior to closing out her juvenile campaign in style.
Wonder Wheel posted a gate-to-wire score in the Alcibiades S. (G1) at Keeneland in her penultimate run of the season, and she displayed both her class and versatility when rallying from 11th place early on to annex the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) by three impressive lengths.
Watch the full replay of @DarleyAmerica Alcibiades (G1) winner WONDER WHEEL, she is all class in the @BreedersCup Juvenile Fillies (G1)! @Tyler_Gaff gets his first Breeders’ Cup win. Owned by D.J. Stable, trained by @markecasse pic.twitter.com/FngWVzWpbJ
— Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) November 4, 2022
She finished a neck second in the Suncoast S. to kick off her three-year-old campaign in what was a decent start to the year, prior to registering her first unplaced showing last time out. The daughter of Into Mischief ran evenly when a non-threatening sixth last time out in the Ashland S. (G1) which was a puzzling result, although she has come back with strong morning drills in the interim and figures to show vast improvement while making her third run off the layoff. Wonder Wheel was always pointed towards this race and will peak on Friday.
A slight concern for me is that her regular pilot Tyler Gaffalione will guide another contender in the storied affair, but picking up the services of Joel Rosario is never a bad thing and I’m assuming that his style will suit the filly quite well. The Oaks lacks an abundance of pace players, and with Wonder Wheel's versatility I can envision her tracking the tempo while always in striking range and getting the jump on the deeper closing types at the top of the lane.
While it simply seems wrong to call her a long shot, I consider Wonder Wheel to be the Best Longshot to wager on in the 2023 Kentucky Oaks.
Find expert analysis and overviews of all the contenders for the Kentucky Derby on our News & Notes page here on TwinSpires.com!
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