Scott Shapiro's NFL Saturday preview

Jameis Winston sets up to throw a pass against the New York Giants. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

The Thursday night action is through for 2019, but Week 16 offers NFL fanatics a juicy trio of games on Saturday, December 21.

It has been a bumpy road against the number for me over the last few weeks, after an amazing first couple of months. Hopefully I can close out my regular season on a high note and finish with another profitable campaign.

Houston Texans (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

Tampa Bay has rattled off four straight victories behind often maligned quarterback Jameis Winston. The first overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft has struggled to protect the football in 2019, evidenced by his 24 interceptions and 12 fumbles (five lost) through 14 games, but he has done a great job of moving the ball down the field of late.

Winston became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 450 yards or more in consecutive contests—the Bucs' recent wins against the Lions and Colts. He will be without his top two receivers—Mike Evans and Chris Godwin—Saturday, but I still expect him to find a way to move the ball against a Texans defense that ranks sixth worst against the pass.

The Texans enter off a big win as a road underdog in Nashville and hold a one-game lead over the Titans atop the AFC South, but they are hard to trust in this role. They are just 1-5 ATS as favorites in 2019, 8-14 over the last three years and have only covered back-to-back games once in 2019.

Tampa has not exactly thrived against the number at Raymond James Stadium, but the Bucs have been good to bettors in December. They've covered both games in 2019 and eight of their 11 December games over the last three years. They play better when the games lose significance.

Pick: Tampa Bay +3

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5), 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

The Bills head to Foxborough off a playoff-clinching win in Week 15. They may not be pretty to watch on offense, but they are well coached and play great defense.

In Buffalo’s first matchup against the defending champions, quarterback Josh Allen threw three interceptions, but they were able to run the ball against the stout Patriots defense. It was veteran Frank Gore who carried the bulk of the load in that late-September game (he rushed for 109 yards on 17 carries), but on Saturday it will be the more dynamic Devin Singletary in that role. The third-round pick out of Florida Atlantic has been impressive in his first year and has a much better chance of breaking a big play in a contest where points will likely be at a premium.

Josh Allen vultured his touchdown a play later, but this was one hell of a stutter-step from Devin Singletary pic.twitter.com/GfFoFn9eIP
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 16, 2019

The Patriots are 11-3 and are likely to get a bye in the playoffs, but their offense has struggled all year long. Future Hall of Famer Tom Brady led New England to victory Sunday in Cincinnati, but he missed a number of open receivers and only posted 128 yards on 29 attempts. I do not see the Pats offense suddenly coming to life in a challenging matchup at home in Week 16.

Look for New England to find a way to clinch yet another AFC East title, but in a game that comes down to the wire.

Pick: Buffalo +6.5

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5), 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

These NFC West rivals met in mid-October in Southern California, and it was the San Francisco defense that paved the way to a 20-7 victory for the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s team has posted big numbers on offense on a few occasions in 2019, but overall it has been defense that has led the 49ers to an 11-3 record.

When the 49ers take on teams that can protect the quarterback, their defense is somewhat beatable, but that is unlikely to be the case on Saturday night against a Rams team that has a subpar offensive line.

Los Angeles appeared to turn a corner with impressive wins over the Cardinals and Seahawks, but both opponents struggle to pressure the quarterback. In Week 15 the Rams faced a more formidable front in Dallas, and the results were far worse. Not only were they unable to open holes for running back Todd Gurley, but they did a terrible job of protecting quarterback Jared Goff. Things are unlikely to get better Saturday evening, when they take on perhaps the best front four in football.

The Rams defense got embarrassed in Texas and should rebound with a better effort, but San Francisco’s defense should outduel them in a game where both teams may struggle to find the end zone.