The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for April 13 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali talk their bets and fades for Keeneland and Oaklawn. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#2 Taxed (5-1) in Saturday’s $1.25 million Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park. The gray filly didn’t go on after recording a superb win in the 1 1/8-mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2) last spring, but she’s poised to show more at age four. Loved her comeback performance four weeks ago, winning convincingly at a six-furlong distance that appeared too short for her, and Taxed will look to show more stretching back out to a favorable two-turn trip. I will look for a big late kick from Taxed.

Ashley Anderson:

#8 Encino (5-1) in the Lexington (G3), R10 at Keeneland on Saturday. The Brad Cox trainee was originally entered in last weekend's Blue Grass (G1) but scratched, and he'll face lighter competition in this 1 1/16-mile test. The Nyquist colt is a neck shy of an unbeaten 3-for-3 record. He's won his last two racing 1 1/16 miles at Turfway, including the John Battaglia Memorial S., where he recorded a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed figure. The Godolphin homebred will try dirt for the first time, and Cox is a 24% winner with the surface switch from all-weather. He's also a 28% winner with horses that won their last race, and Florent Geroux (5-2-1-1 to start the meet) will pick up the mount. Encino has also looked sharp in recent workouts at Keeneland and should be ready to go Saturday.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

The Wine Steward (5-2) in Saturday’s Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. Unraced since a half-length second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last October, The Wine Steward was in sharp form last fall, winning his first three starts, including pair of stakes, before shipping to Keeneland. And while he ran well stretching to 1 1/16 miles, The Wine Steward showed an affinity for sprint distances winning a pair of six-furlong stakes at Ellis Park and Saratoga. I would have preferred to have seen a prep and will try to beat The Wine Steward.

AA: 

#11 Elm Drive (7-2) in the Giant's Causeway (G3), R7 at Keeneland. The five-year-old mare drew an outside post, which has a low win percentage this meet and last. The Phil D'Amato trainee has raced mainly on dirt but switched to turf in her 10th career start, and she's 1-for-4 on the grass. She rallied to finish a head second three back at 6 1/2 furlongs, then stretched out to a mile and was seventh before cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs and once again rallying late to finish a head second. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs may be too short for her, and she's also getting a rider switch from Flavien Prat to Luis Saez, who's a 12% winner on turf.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

After days of heavy rainfall, Keeneland’s turf will have some give for a pair of Grade 1 events, Friday’s $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile and Saturday’s $600,000 Jenny Wiley. 

The conditions may not favor #4 Master of the Seas (4-5) in the Maker’s Mark. Last seen winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), the gelding did not always fire over soft conditions overseas. A couple of formerly European-based longshots, #3 Naval Power (10-1) and #5 Kubrick (20-1) recorded stakes wins under wet conditions previously, and we’ll see if the ground moves them up.

In the Jenny Wiley, #3 Elusive Princess (8-1) has shown a preference for yielding turf overseas, recording three consecutive wins over ground labeled as soft, and she could move up over the expected conditions. #5 English Rose (9-2), a four-year-old daughter of Frankel making her U.S. debut, is also a candidate to appreciate less-than-firm ground.

AA:

Oaklawn Park will host the Grade 3 Count Fleet H. featuring one of the nation's top sprinters, #4 Skelly (1-1). The Practical Joke gelding was riding a seven-win streak before he finished second by 1 1/2 lengths in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) in Dubai in February. The five-year-old returns to Oaklawn, where he's 6-for-8 and will attempt to rebound in a race he won last year for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has five wins in the Count Fleet since 2013. Stablemates #2 Jaxon Traveler (7-2), who just won the Whitmore (G3), and #7 Ryvit (9-2) are also in the field, as well as closer #6 Tejano Twist (3-1), who was beaten a nose in the Whitmore last out. Skelly should have his way but he does have another early speed type to his outside and may get pushed into a hot pace. If that happens, Tejano Twist may finally get back to the winner's circle after getting beaten by Jaxon Traveler and Skelly in his last two.