The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Aug. 31-Sept. 1 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, Darin Zoccali, and James Scully reconvene to argue their best bets and fades at Del Mar, Saratoga, and Kentucky Downs. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully: 

#2 Authentic Gallop (8-1) in the second race at Saratoga on Saturday. After training forwardly at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, the dark bay colt was bet down to 3-1 in his career debut at Saratoga last month and set the pace before weakening in the stretch of the six-furlong maiden special weight. 

Tom Amoss has put three turf works into the well-bred son of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, including a pair of quick drills, and the added ground and surface switch look like no issue for Authentic Gallop, who hails from an outstanding Canadian-based female family. He figures to be forwardly placed with the addition of blinkers and Dylan Davis.

Ashley Anderson:

#2 Sherbini (8-1) in the seven-furlong Spinaway (G1), the 11th race at Saratoga on Saturday. 

The Cairo Prince two-year-old won on debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill, where she beat next-out maiden winner Strong State, who reopposes her today. The Mark Casse trainee made her stakes debut last out in the six-furlong Schuylerville, where she closed late to finish second to the 7-2 second choice in the Spinaway, The Queens M G. 

The stretch out to seven furlongs should suit Sherbini based on pedigree, and she'll keep regular rider Florent Geroux, a 23% winner in sprints. Casse is also hot at Saratoga, with a 46-15-4-4 record this meet, and he's a 16% winner with horses returning off layoffs of 46-90 days. Sherbini also posted two sharp recent workouts at Saratoga and should get an ideal pace setup with so much speed signed on among the 11-filly field.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#1 Ruby Nell (7-2) in Saturday’s Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs. 

The $3.1 million Nashville Derby (G3) looks more straightforward one race earlier, with English invader Belle Justum and last-out stakes romper Cugino highlighting a full field of 12, but the Ladies Sprint appears ripe for an upset. 

Ruby Nell enters the 6 1/2-furlong turf sprint off a pair of frontrunning performances in turf routes, but the four-year-old filly rallied from off the pace in her last attempt sprinting. With the presence of plenty of speed to her outside in the 12-horse field, Ruby Nell may need to work out a trip from her rail post. 

My top choice is #11 Danse Macabre (6-1), who exits a neck second in the Caress (G3) at Saratoga, and I will try to beat the morning-line favorite.

AA:

#10 Mission of Joy (4-1) in the Ladies Turf S. (G3), R10 at Kentucky Downs on Saturday. 

The Kitten's Joy four-year-old is surprisingly the morning-line favorite despite riding a seven-loss streak. In her last two tries at today's distance of a mile, she finished a half-length third and far back in fourth in the Just A Game (G1) and Distaff Turf Mile (G2), respectively. 

The Graham Motion pupil will also likely get turf with some give in it, with rain in the forecast in the area Saturday. The two times the late runner raced on softer turf, she came home third and fourth. I see a couple of runners who can beat the lukewarm favorite, including #3 Fluffy Socks (9-2) and #4 Implicated (6-1), and will play against Mission of Joy, who is 0-for-4 this season.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Leading older female Adare Manor has been installed as the 9-5 morning-line favorite over eight foes in Saturday’s $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, and the five-year-old will try to join Hall of Famer Beholder as the only winning females in the race’s 34-year history. 

The 1 1/4-mile distance represents a challenge; Adare Manor has relished shorter trips, recording six of her eight stakes wins at 1 1/16 miles or less, including sharp wins in the Apple Blossom (G1) and Clement Hirsch (G1) this season. 

However, the competition is not formidable and the dark bay daughter of Uncle Mo enters in top form for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. She could come up short, but the 2024 Pacific Classic looks very winnable for the classy mare.

AA:

War Like Goddess is back in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl for the third time on Saturday. The seven-year-old mare won the 2021 edition and finished a neck second to Virginia Joy in 2022 along her path to the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), where she placed third that year. Now in her seven-year-old season, the Bill Mott trainee is 1-for-2 and just won a Grade 3 at Delaware Park after finishing third to Didia in the 1 3/16-mile New York (G1) at Saratoga. 

War Like Goddess has an affinity for the Spa, with a 6-3-2-1 record, but the late closer is going up against another horse for the course, #7 McKulick (3-1), who's 6-3-2-0 at Saratoga and just won the Glens Falls (G2) last out at 1 1/2 miles. 

McKulick came home second to today's rival Parnac in the 2023 Flower Bowl before finishing last of 12 in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). The Frankel filly will look to earn a bid to the same race in the Flower Bowl, a Breeders' Cup Win and You're In challenge series event, and may be in slightly better form than War Like Goddess. McKulick's trainer, Chad Brown, is no stranger to the winner's circle in the Flower Bowl either. He's won a record seven times, and six of those victories came in the last 10 editions.