The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Dec. 21 [VIDEO]

December 19th, 2024

Ashley Anderson, James Scully and Darin Zoccali discuss their best bets and fades at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, and Turfway Park!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#1 Ricky Wannabe (6-1) in the third race at Turfway Park Saturday. The gelding opened his racing career at Turfway last March, finishing a good second in a $30,000 maiden claiming event from an inside post in his lone appearance over a synthetic surface, but went off form a few starts later. Ricky Wannabe appears to be turning things around, showing good speed and breaking his maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis over a sloppy track in late October, and the three-year-old should appreciate returning to Turfway’s Tapeta. He won’t face the toughest competition in this $15,000 claimer for non-winners of two lifetime, and Ricky Wannabe has the tactical ability to make his own trip in a field lacking speed.

Ashley Anderson:

#1 Mischievous Rogue (9-2) in the Richard Scherer Memorial S., a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint in the eighth race on Saturday at Fair Grounds. The six-year-old gelding by Into Mischief will make his first start for Brittany Vanden Berg, who strikes 21% of the time first start off the claim. In his previous start, Mischievous Rogue was beaten by a neck as the favorite in a five-furlong allowance optional claimer on Churchill Downs' turf, and Vanden Berg is a 30% winner with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start. The added distance should also suit Mischievous Rogue, who's 7-3-3-0 lifetime from 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. He'll pick up Jareth Loveberry, an 18% winner this meet, and he's capable of winning from far off the pace or sitting right off the early pacesetter. I'll back Mischievous Rogue over morning-line favorite #7 One Timer (3-1), who just raced last Saturday at Turfway in the Holiday Cheer S. and has not won on the turf since August of 2023.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

Tumbarumba (8-5) in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park Saturday. This miler can handle less ground, winning two of his last three starts at 6 1/2 or 7 furlongs, but Tumbarumba has proven to be ineffective at any distance past eight furlongs, losing all five attempts, including a pair at short odds. In six career starts at a mile, Tumbarumba owns two wins, including the Fred Hopper (G3) at Gulfstream earlier this year, three seconds, and a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). He’s not going to win big dirt route races in 2025, but Tumbarumba has the potential to be a serious factor in seven-furlong events like the Carter (G2) and Churchill Downs S. (G1) this spring. Why waste time running a one-turn, middle-distance specialist in two-turn dirt routes? Those wanting to play Tumbarumba at a less-than-favorable distance will get the opportunity Saturday.

AA:

#3 Alvarado Cat (3-1) at Fair Grounds on Saturday in the opener, a six-furlong allowance for Louisiana-breds. The Tale of the Cat gelding is searching for his second win in his eighth career start and will be racing at a distance from which he's 0-for-4 lifetime. The three-year-old graduated three back in a one-mile state-restricted maiden special weight over a sloppy Evangeline Downs track, then went on a nearly four-month break before he finished a distant fourth in a five-furlong state-restricted allowance. Last out, he stretched back out to six furlongs and came home a two-length third, a half-length behind the runner-up, today's race rival #7 Yockey's Drivethru (4-1). Alvarado Cat is also 0-for-3 at Fair Grounds, and his trainer has been a bit cold to start the meet, with a 2-for-38 record thus far.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Fair Grounds marks the final stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks series in 2024, with the $100,000 Gun Runner and $100,000 Rags to Riches offering points toward respective Kentucky Derby and Oaks berths next spring. #5 Admiral Dennis (9-5), a convincing second-out maiden winner at Churchill Downs for Brad Cox, heads five in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner. Luis Saez rides the chestnut Constitution colt, and Admiral Dennis figures to be prominent from the start. #3 Magnitude (2-1), a sharp entry-level allowance scorer for Steve Asmussen in mid-November, is among the rivals.

In the Untapable at a mile and 70 yards, #4 Golden Gamble (5-2) will make her first stakes attempt for Kenny McPeek after humbling a nice group of maiden special weight rivals at Churchill on Nov. 23, drawing off stylishly to win her second start by nine lengths, and Brian Hernandez Jr. will guide the Laoban filly. I liked Golden Gamble’s maiden triumph, and she could add more quality to a deep crop of two-year-old fillies.

AA:

Gulfstream's leading trainer Saffie Joseph will carry a large presence on Saturday for Pegasus World Cup Preview Day with 19 entries on the 11-race card, including five in the Sugar Swirl. The Barbadian trainer also has three entered in the Harlan's Holiday (G3), the prep for the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Among them are horse-for-the-course Cape Trafalgar; Digital Ops, previously in the barn of Chad Brown; and Super Corinto, an Argentinian-bred who makes his second start since transferring to Joseph. Later, in the Ft. Lauderdale (G2), he has chances with Mint Millions (G3) runner-up Cash Equity, recent stakes winner Lorenz, and Saratoga Flash, a six-year-old gelding who won an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream on Oct. 18. Grade 2 winner Be Your Best and stakes winner Be My Sunshine are also entered in the Suwannee River (G3), a prep for the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2). In addition to his horses running Saturday, Joseph is planning to run White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking in the Pegasus World Cup, so his presence could be nearly as large at Gulfstream on Jan. 25.