The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Dec. 4-Dec. 8 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully and Darin Zoccali explore the fields of Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, Woodbine and look at the Cigar Mile presented by TwinSpires!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#11 Think Big (4-1) in the eighth race at Fair Grounds Saturday. TwinSpires has a good offer for the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds, and I will single Think Big in his first turf attempt. By good turf sire Twirling Candy, who is responsible for four Grade 1 turf winners, Think Big broke his maiden the second time out on the main track at Colonial Downs in late July. He got off to a rough start in an entry-level allowance at Churchill Downs next out, offering a fine run for fifth, and two turns proved too much for the sprinter last time. Out of a turf stakes-winning mare, Think Big is bred to appreciate the surface switch and is well-drawn on the outside. Michael Stidham has a positive ROI with horses making their first turf start, and Think Big will be reunited with Ben Curtis, who was up for his maiden win and finished fourth in the Fair Grounds jockey standings last season.

Ashley Anderson:

#8 Loose Wire (4-1) in the 1 1/2-mile Valedictory (G3) in the eighth race at Woodbine on Saturday. The lightly raced Street Sense colt is out of an A.P. Indy mare and won his first two career starts racing 1 1/8 miles on Woodbine's all-weather. He cut back to 1 1/16 miles in his last two and was a five-length second off a long layoff in his season debut this September, then won last out in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer. The late closer recorded a 97 Late Pace rating last out when getting up to win by half a length, and he's eligible to improve third start off the layoff for trainer Kevin Attard. Rafael Hernandez will retain the mount, and Loose Wire put in a sharp four-furlong workout on Nov. 30. I'll back the improving four-year-old breaking from post 8.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#5 Maycocks Bay (2-1) in the seventh race at Fair Grounds Saturday. Stidham and Curtis will team up on my best bet one race later, but I will play against them and Maycocks Bay at a short price. Unraced since January, romping in an off-the-turf race over a small group of suspect rivals, Maycocks Bay had everything his own way on a soft pace last time and will face different circumstances. He showed little when rating off the pace in a Fair Grounds entry-level allowance two starts back, generating Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70s in three starts over fast tracks prior to the last (which looks like an anomaly), and several rivals look faster in my estimation. I will fade Maycocks Bay off the layoff.

AA:

#1 Muhimma (4-5) in the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep race, at Aqueduct on Saturday. The two-year-old by Munnings is unbeaten from two starts and has won by a combined 13 lengths for trainer Brad Cox. Not only is Muhimma trying two turns for the first time, but she's stretching out to nine furlongs after racing no farther than seven previously in her career. While her dam is a stakes winner at 1 5/16 miles, on the top side of her pedigree Muhimma's bred for sprint distances. Cox has been red hot to start the Aqueduct meet and Florent Geroux is a 24% winner paired with Cox over the last two months, but 4-5 is too short a price to back a two-year-old racing two turns for the first time and shipping to a new track. I'll look to beat Muhimma at such short odds and play a few in horizontals, including #3 Fortuna Mia (15-1), #6 Bless the Broken (12-1), and #10 Ballerina d'Oro (8-1) for Chad Brown.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

#1 Happy Is a Choice (2-1) exits a nice win in the six-furlong Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. at Churchill Downs, nailing loose-on-the-lead Skelly in the final strides to prevail by a neck, and the four-year-old gelding headlines a field of seven sprinters in Saturday’s $150,000 Ring the Bell S. at Oaklawn Park. A convincing winner of a stakes-quality allowance in late June, he didn’t receive the right trip in the Jeff Hilton Memorial S. at Ellis Park two back, checking in third, and I like the progress Happy Is a Choice has made in three starts since late June, netting triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings and Speed ratings of 102 and 99. Happy Is a Choice likes Oaklawn, recording back-to-back wins earlier this year, and he’s got the potential to keep developing into a top-class sprinter this winter for John Ortiz.

AA:

Oaklawn Park will open its 2024-25 season on Friday with a 10-race card highlighted by the 5 1/2-furlong Advent S. for two-year-olds. The six-horse field is headlined by even-money favorite #5 Innovator (1-1), who is interestingly the only maiden among the field. The Authentic colt will make his sixth career start and last out set the early pace but was beaten at the wire by high-profile Bob Baffert juvenile Barnes in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27. Innovator will make his second start off the layoff for D. Wayne Lukas and will pick up Cristian Torres, but I will try to beat the maiden with #4 Perfect Magic (5-1) for Steve Asmussen. The Maclean's Music colt graduated at third asking when trying dirt for the first time and gained a lead at the second call of a 5 1/2-furlong sprint before drawing clear in upper stretch to win by two lengths. He'll retain the services of Steve's son Erik, an 18% winner paired with Steve over the last two months.