The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Jan. 25 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali reveal their best bets and fades for Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream Park, the Southwest (G3) and Martha Washington S. at Oaklawn Park, and more.

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully: 

#9 Cape Trafalgar (8-1) in Saturday’s Fred Hooper (G3) at Gulfstream Park. Love the cutback to a one-turn mile for the middle-distance specialist, and Cape Trafalgar registered a commendable 98 Brisnet Speed rating when recording a sharp allowance score at Keeneland two back. After making fine progress last year, Saffie Joseph Jr. tried the up-and-comer at a route in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) last month, and Cape Trafalgar gutted out a fourth-place finish despite a less-than-favorable inside trip at a distance beyond his scope. Cape Trafalgar will benefit from that initial stakes experience and relish the cutback in distance Saturday, and I’m not surprised to see Irad Ortiz Jr. stick with the improving five-year-old horse. 

Ashley Anderson:

#6 Sandman (5-1) in the Southwest (G3), the 10th race at Oaklawn on Saturday. The gray Tapit colt will take on the likes of #1 Gaming (2-1) and #7 Patch Adams (5-2), both of whom will be heavily backed by the public. I see an opportunity to play a price here and will back the late closer, who is coming off a rallying, 1 3/4-length victory in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn in December that earned him a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed figure and a 104 Late Pace rating. The Mark Casse pupil was purchased for $1.2 million as a two-year-old in training and broke his maiden at second asking in a competitive seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. He then jumped to graded stakes company in his next two starts and finished a distant fifth in the one-mile Iroquois (G3) and third by 5 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3). Sandman seemed to turn a corner in his most recent start, and he put in a sharp workout Jan. 17 at Oaklawn ahead of his second try at 8 1/2 furlongs. There’s plenty of speed signed on to set up Sandman for a late-charging rally, and I will back him for a hot trainer who’s winning at a 38% clip at Oaklawn this meet.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

Nobals (7-2) in Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. The six-year-old gelding has dropped his comeback start the last two years and Nobals doesn’t always take his course with him, recording a 0-for-3 record on Saratoga’s turf and a 0-for-2 mark at Keeneland and Kentucky Downs. He’s done a lot of traveling without racing over the last couple of months, shipping to Hong Kong in December (forced to scratch due to a fever) and Fair Grounds last week (scratched from off-the-turf stakes despite Larry Rivelli saying he wanted to run him on the main track), and Nobals has been redirected to Gulfstream this weekend. I prefer others, including #6 No Nay Hudson (10-1), in Nobals’ Gulfstream debut.

AA: 

#4 Lat Long (5-2) in Race 1 at Oaklawn, the start of the Early Pick 5 on Saturday. The four-year-old by Liam’s Map is looking to earn his second career win in his 12th start and currently rides a six-loss streak, in which he has finished no closer than 3 1/4 lengths off the winner. The Kenny McPeek trainee was last seen coming home third as the favorite in a one-mile allowance at Oaklawn, and he could improve second start off the layoff but with the lack of early speed among the field, Lat Long’s run style may make him vulnerable. I prefer the chances of two runners who will go for the early lead — #6 Gewurztraminer (7-2), who is tied for the highest last race speed rating among the field, and most of all #8 Bedard (4-1). The latter is making his first start for trainer Brad Cox and won last out in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland, where he beat a field of 11, including a next-out winner who placed second in the race. I’ll look to beat Lat Long considering the projected pace setup and will back a horse who will go to the front early.

Pegasus World Cup (G1) pick

JS:

#11 Locked (5-2). After missing most of his three-year-old season, Locked came back strong in the fall, romping over allowance rivals, and he returned to stakes competition with a powerhouse performance in December’s Cigar Mile (G2) at Aqueduct. Along with earning fine Brisnet Speed (102) and Late Pace (100) numbers, Locked left the impression that he will have more to offer at longer distances, winning professionally with seemingly plenty in reserve, and I will be surprised if Locked doesn’t prove faster than Pegasus World Cup rivals on Saturday.

AA: 

#4 White Abarrio (3-1). The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner will make his third start since transferring to the barn of Saffie Joseph and will stretch back out to 1 1/8 miles after racing at seven furlongs in his last two starts. The six-year-old boasts a 7-2-1-0 record from 1 1/8 miles and he relishes the main track at Gulfstream, where he’s posted an 8-6-1-0 mark. White Abarrio has been working sharply ahead of the Pegasus World Cup, and he’ll stick with regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., a 24% winner this meet. He’s also won 30% of the time paired up with Joseph over the last two months.

Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) pick

JS:

#6 Major Dude (6-1). An inconsistent stakes performer as a three-year-old, Major Dude missed nearly 10 months before returning last summer. He started to come on last fall, recording a nice allowance win over stakes-experienced rivals at Keeneland, and kept progressing with a rallying victory in the Dec. 21 Ft. Lauderdale (G2). Major Dude loves Gulfstream’s turf (3-2-1-0) and the nine-furlong distance (2-for-2), and I’ll tab the Todd Pletcher runner for a minor upset.

AA: 

I like both Shug McGaughey horses, with a slight preference for #5 Integration (3-1) but will play him and stablemate #10 Battle of Normandy (20-1) in an exacta box. Integration was one of the hottest three-year-olds on the turf in 2023 but snapped a three-race win streak in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) last year when sent off as the 1.20-1 favorite. He struggled in two subsequent starts, then returned to the winner’s circle when facing just two rivals in the Million Preview S. at Colonial Downs in July. He then placed second to today’s rival Nations Pride in the Arlington Million (G1) when rallying late and was fourth to today’s rival Grand Sonata in the 1 1/2-mile Turf Cup (G2) at Kentucky Downs. Last out, Integration shipped to Aqueduct and got up to win by two lengths in the Red Smith (G2). Per DRF, McGaughey was quoted as saying, “[Integration’s] definitely a better horse than he was when he ran in this race a year ago.” As for Battle of Normandy, the City of Light five-year-old is on a four-race win streak and earned a Grade 3 win in the 1 1/8-mile River City S. last out at Churchill Downs. He’ll sit closer to the early pace in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, and he’s picking up Jose Ortiz, a 20% winner at Gulfstream. 

Southwest (G3) pick

JS:

#6 Sandman (5-1). Looked promising when breaking his maiden at Saratoga the second time out, but Sandman needed more time to develop and earned lower numbers while making his next two starts against stakes rivals. The Mark Casse-trained Tapit colt appeared to turn the corner in mid-December, displaying an outstanding turn of foot to win an Oaklawn allowance going away, and Sandman will look to carry his blossoming form forward in the Southwest. 

AA: 

As noted above, I will back #6 Sandman (5-1) at a price based on his run style and what should be a hot early pace. 

Martha Washington S. pick

JS:

#1 Quietside (8-5). After finishing second and third to eventual champion Immersive in the Spinaway (G1) and Alcibiades (G1), Quietside offered a nice rally to challenge in the stretch of the Golden Rod (G2) but was turned back by Good Cheer, who many think is more talented than her stablemate Immersive. She won’t face any rivals of that caliber Saturday, and I will look for Quietside to come back strong off the encouraging runner-up effort.

AA: 

#1 Quietside (8-5) will drop in class today after running into unbeaten Godolphin homebred Good Cheer in the Golden Rod (G2), where Quietside came home second, and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) victress Immersive — who beat Quietside in both the Spinaway (G1) and Alcibiades (G1). The competition in the Martha Washington will be more manageable for the Malibu Moon filly, whose lone win from four starts came on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. Quietside will return off nearly a month of rest, and trainer John Ortiz is an 18% winner off layoffs of 46 to 90 days. Quietside also drew the rail post, which is winning at a 21% clip, and she owns both the highest last race speed rating and best dirt speed figure among the field.

If looking for a better price, #3 Take Charge Milady (3-1) has a chance for trainer Kenny McPeek. She broke her maiden in her third career start when stalking the early pace and drawing clear to win by four lengths. She earned an 86 BRIS figure with a 101 Late Pace rating when racing a mile over a sloppy Oaklawn track. She could take another step forward third start off the layoff and will keep rider Julien Leparoux, a 23% winner at Oaklawn.