The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Jan. 4 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully and Darin Zoccali reconvene in the new year to debate their best bets and fades at Turfway Park, Oaklawn, Aqueduct, and more.

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#5 Mo Quality (5-1) in Saturday’s Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. After missing the break in his debut, Mo Quality caught the eye rallying for second to stakes runner-up Touchy in a Keeneland maiden special weight in late October. The Chris Davis-trained colt came back to win smartly at Churchill Downs four weeks later, displaying good speed to track the pace before drawing away to an easy win, and registered commendable Brisnet numbers. He’s bred/built to relish added ground, and Mo Quality looks poised to keep progressing in his first stakes attempt.

Ashley Anderson:

#3 Upside Potential (4-1) in Race 4 at Turfway, a six-furlong claimer for non-winners of three. The lightly raced gelding is 2-for-3 lifetime, with his lone loss coming on turf last out in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance, his first start for trainer Eddie Kenneally. Both of the five-year-old's victories came at today's distance of six furlongs, and Kenneally is a 17% winner going from turf to all-weather. The son of Mendelssohn will also pick up Luan Machado, a 17% winner this meet. I'll back the early pacesetter against a field of more experienced runners who appear out of form and have needed far more starts to achieve the same number of career victories as Upside Potential.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#7 Hold My Bourbon (5-2) in the eighth race at Turfway Saturday.  Unplaced in a lone attempt on a synthetic track, four-year-old colt did not go on after breaking his maiden in May, making little-to-no impact in his next three starts, and Hold My Bourbon coughed up a clear lead in the stretch when returning from a freshening over a sloppy track last time. He did show an affinity for more ground than today’s 6 1/2-furlong distance, and it’s difficulhttps://x.com/TwinSpires/status/1789770136334803114t to be enthused about the switch back to synthetics. I will play against Hold My Bourbon in multi-race wagers. 

AA:

#6 Hot Property (5-2) in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones S. The Brad Cox runner won in gate-to-wire fashion at today's distance but got away with setting a relaxed early pace while facing six rivals. The Medaglia d'Oro colt will step up in class in his second start and should get pushed for the early lead. He earned an 87 Brisnet Speed figure and a 113 Class Rating on debut, and his numbers are light compared to a few others in the field, including #1 Kale's Angel (2-1), who recorded a 97 BRIS figure last out in the 5 1/2-furlong Advent S. at Oaklawn, #8 Coal Battle (9-2), who posted a 92 BRIS figure in his Springboard Mile win, and #5 Mo Quality (5-1), who graduated at second asking with a 90 BRIS figure in a competitive 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill on Nov. 23. The 8-5 morning-line price is too short for me on a debut maiden winner with a light speed figure, so I will stand against the Cox trainee in Oaklawn's Kentucky Derby prep.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Saturday’s San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita won’t offer any Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points, but the seven-furlong test is eligible to have an impact upon this year’s Triple Crown events. #5 Bullard (4-5), a Gun Runner colt trained by Michael McCarthy, will look to remain perfect following a convincing win in the Bob Hope (G3) in mid-November. Bob Baffert will send out #2 Barnes (8-5), a $3.2 million yearling purchase who gamely captured his first start at Churchill Downs, and smashing debut scorer #3 Romanesque (5-1). And multiple Grade 1-placed #1 McKinzie Street (10-1) adds further depth to the intriguing five-horse field.

The Macho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream Park is another race to keep an eye upon this Saturday. #1 Guns Loaded (5-2), an impressive maiden winner at Churchill Downs in mid-November, will look to enhance his credentials for Jose d’Angelo in the one-turn mile event, and last-out allowance winners #5 Cool Intentions (9-2) and #6 Septarian (3-1) rate as contenders in their first stakes appearance.

AA:

Aside from a pair of Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn and Aqueduct this weekend, Santa Anita will host a Kentucky Oaks prep on Sunday in the seven-furlong Santa Ynez S. for three-year-old fillies. The $100,000 non-graded stakes drew a field of eight highlighted by #5 Look Forward, a Bolt d'Oro filly who had the lead in the stretch but yielded late to finish second in the 1 1/16-mile Starlet S. (G2) at Los Alamitos last out. Two from that race, #6 Mawu and #4 Practical Dream, will re-oppose the Michael McCarthy trainee, who recorded a field-best 95 BRIS figure in her stakes effort. She put in a bullet four-furlong workout at Santa Anita ahead of her third career start but will face some new and dangerous challengers in Mawu's stablemate Howin, a Gun Runner filly trained by Bob Baffert; A.Z. Wildcat, who won by 1 3/4 lengths on debut at Los Alamitos on June 30 for John Sadler; and Silent Law, another Baffert runner who won her first two starts before finishing second to Practical Dream in the Desi Arnaz S. last out. The winner of the Santa Ynez will receive 10 points toward the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard. Second through fifth will receive points on a 5-3-2-1 scale.