The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for July 13 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully and Ashley Anderson debate their best bets and fades for opening weekend at Saratoga and Colonial Downs, as well as Horseshoe Indianapolis and Woodbine racing.

Best Bets for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#6 Whitebeam (4-1) in Saturday’s Diana (G1) at Saratoga. She’s tracked the speed in second in her last four starts, recording a pair of close runner-up finishes in the Just a Game (G1) and Beaugay (G3) this season, but the pace dynamics favor the five-year-old mare in this spot. Evie Jets, who set the pace to her inside before weakening to fourth in the Just a Game, turned in her best effort when stalking in last year’s Ballston Spa (G2) victory and appears likely to switch tactics from an outside post in the Diana. That leaves Whitebeam as the probable pacesetter in a title defense. Flavien Prat will look to dictate terms as the controlling speed, and Whitebeam has run her best races on Saratoga’s turf.

Ashley Anderson: 

#6 Fulmineo (2-1) in the inaugural Boston S., the sixth race at Colonial on Saturday. The Arnaud Delacour trainee will return off a nearly two-month layoff and was last seen winning the one-mile James W. Murphy S. over soft turf at Pimlico. He will likely get some give in the grass here as well with heavy rain in the forecast for Friday and a 62% chance of rain on Saturday. The Bolt d'Oro colt recorded an 89 Brisnet Speed figure last out, the highest last race speed rating among the field, and beat the runner-up, and today's race rival, Crystal Quest by 2 1/4 lengths. Fulmineo is 6-2-3-0 lifetime on turf and 3-1-1-0 from today's distance, while Delacour is a 24% winner with horses that won their last race and a 21% winner with shippers. I'll play Fulmineo over 9-5 morning line favorite #8 In a Jam (9-5), who raced on all-weather last time out and has not won on turf since Feb. 10, when he got up late in a 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer on Gulfstream Park's turf.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#1 Nadette (2-1) in Saturday’s Beverly D. Preview S. at Colonial Downs. The five-year-old mare caught a soft field when winning April’s Wilshire (G3) at Santa Anita, snapping a 12-race, 23-month losing streak in the process, and her inconsistent form makes her a risky proposition at short odds. The one-run closer left herself too much to do when rallying belatedly for fourth in the Gamely (G1) last out, recording her third unplaced effort from the last five starts, and I’ll fade Nadette from a win bet.

AA:

#11 Everland (3-1) in the Horseshoe Indianapolis H., Race 4 at Horseshoe Indy on Saturday. The Arrogate filly was fourth by more than three lengths last out in the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) and will cut back in distance here. Prior to the Regret, she ran on dirt in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and most recently got a win when covering 1 1/16 miles on Turfway's all-weather in the Bourbonette Oaks. The deep closer failed to finish in the money in her other turf start as well, and her recent speed figures are light compared to a few of today's race rivals. Trainer Eric Foster is also just a 7% winner with turf starts. I'll stand against the favorite and look to a few longer-priced horses with a chance: #5 Buttercream Babe (9-2), #10 Stylish Sue (12-1), and #12 Neom Beach (5-1).

What Else Is Worth Noting?

JS:

Woodbine offers a pair of stakes Saturday, including the My Dear for two-year-old fillies, and #8 Carlisle Bay (7-2) looms as a major win contender for Barbara Minshall following a sharp 4 1/2-length debut win. The Speightstown filly will be ridden by Emma-Jayne Wilson, who broke Julie Krone’s female jockey earnings record on Thursday. Wilson, who is nearing 2,000 wins, wasn’t the only jockey to establish a milestone last week. Perry Ouzts, who turned 70 last Sunday, became the oldest jockey to win a Thoroughbred race when capturing the seventh race at Belterra on Wednesday. Ouzts has been riding professionally for 51 years and is fifth all-time among North American jockeys with nearly 7,500 wins.

AA:

Multiple graded stakes winner Integration (1-1) was a standout at age three, winning on debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Colonial before defeating top turf male Program Trading in the West Virginia Derby (G3) and triumphing in the Hill Prince (G2) by five lengths to close out his sophomore season. However, at age four, the Quality Road colt has struggled, with a fifth as the favorite in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), a third in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), and a fourth in the Turf Classic (G1). A return to Colonial, where he's 2-for-2, and a drop in class should do the trick for the Shug McGaughey trainee when he competes on Saturday in the Million Preview S. at Colonial. The Quality Road son is also coming off a nearly two-month layoff and will regain Kendrick Carmouche, who won the West Virginia Derby and Hill Prince with his two mounts on Integration. The Million Preview is the highlight of Colonial's nine-race card on Saturday and will serve as a prep for next month's 10-furlong Arlington Million (G1) on Aug. 10.