The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for July 27 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali opine on their best bets and fades for the Jim Dandy S. (G2) and other races on Saratoga's weekend cards, plus the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar and more. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#6 Closethegame Sugar in Saturday’s Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar. This four-year-old gelding made his first five starts on turf and synthetics, but he improved significantly when switching to dirt at Churchill Downs this spring. After a respectable second vs allowance rivals Kentucky Derby week, Closethegame Sugar rallied to get up late in the Aristides S. He continued to show more last time, recording a powerful win in the Kelly’s Landing S., and I like the bold move shipping him west for a prep at Del Mar, site of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) this fall. Closethegame Sugar’s numbers compare favorably to his main rivals, and I will look for him to carry his blossoming form forward.

Ashley Anderson:

#4 Baby Yoda (7-2) in the six-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt S. (G1), the sixth race at Saratoga on Saturday. The six-year-old gelding has returned to form after going 0-for-6 in his five-year-old season and has won his last two, including the 6 1/2-furlong True North (G2) at Saratoga, where he romped to a six-length victory and recorded a 103 Brisnet Speed figure. He also went gate to wire to win by a neck in a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer two back at Belmont at the Big A. Trainer Bill Mott is a 26% winner with horses that won their last race, and Baby Yoda is a horse for the course, with a 6-4-0-1 record at the Spa, plus he's 9-4-2-2 at today's distance. He'll keep rider Eric Cancel, who's 2-for-2 since picking up the mount, and I like Baby Yoda's chances of beating 6-5 favorite Skelly, who's accomplished eight of his 10 career wins at Oaklawn but has a tendency to settle for second when racing elsewhere.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#2 Rajaba (3-1) in the 11th race at Saratoga Saturday. The three-year-old broke through with a convincing front-running maiden win at Aqueduct the third time out in mid-June, but the 8-5 favorite failed to fire recording a dull seventh and Rajaba got away with moderate fractions on a clear lead. I’m not putting too much stock into that performance until he backs it up and want no part of supporting Rajaba at short odds versus tested entry-level allowance foes here.

AA:

#12 Risk Tolerance (3-1) in Race 9 at Saratoga, a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer on the inner turf. The Kingman colt is returning off a more than three-month layoff after graduating on debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct in which he got up to win by three-quarters of a length over 11 rivals and recorded a 78 BRIS figure. His trainer, Chad Brown, is winning at a 24% clip at Saratoga, and Manny Franco will retain the mount, but I don't think Risk Tolerance did enough in his debut to convince me he can beat his rivals, many of whom have posted higher BRIS figures recently and have faced tougher competition. I like Brown's other runner better — #2 Main Beach (5-1), who was beaten a neck in his turf debut at today's distance two back, then improved last out to win by 1 1/2 lengths in his second turf try, also at today's distance. He posted 84 and 81 Brisnet Speed ratings in his last two and will pick up Irad Ortiz Jr., an 18% winner this meet. I also like the chances of #8 West Hollywood (4-1), who won by four lengths in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight on Churchill Downs' turf two back, as well as longshots #4 Time Song (10-1) for trainer George Weaver and #9 Mo Go (15-1), a late runner who won his turf debut at a mile last out.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Unraced since a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), Pacific Classic (G1) winner #4 Arabian Knight will make his much-anticipated return in Saturday’s San Diego (G2) at Del Mar. It’s not a deep group of Classic contenders in the older male division this year, and Arabian Knight will put himself in a prominent spot if he comes back strong. Saturday’s fourth race at Saratoga, an entry-level allowance at six furlongs, will be the comebacker for #5 Speak Easy, who has not been seen since a stirring debut win at Gulfstream in late January. The three-year-old Constitution colt registered a 103 Brisnet Speed rating scoring comfortably in front-running fashion at seven furlongs, and it will be interesting to see where Todd Pletcher aims Speak Easy if he meets expectations in his second career start Saturday. 

AA:

Woodbine will offer a pair of graded stakes on Saturday — the one-mile Ontario Colleen S. (G3) for three-year-old fillies and the 1 1/16-mile Seagram Cup (G2) for three-year-olds and older. In the latter, I am excited to see #2 Money Supply (7-2) try all-weather for the first time after he won his turf debut last out in the James B. Schuster Memorial S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The Practical Joke five-year-old is a versatile runner who has won eight of 19 lifetime starts, with four of those coming on a fast track, three on an off track, and now one on the turf. He's eligible to improve second start off the layoff for trainer Joe Sharp, a 16% winner with shippers, and he's got a graded stakes win in the 1 1/16-mile Mineshaft (G3) on Fair Grounds' main track. 

He'll have his work cut out for him in his all-weather debut, however, as he faces eight rivals, including #9 Paramount Prince (2-1), the winner of last year's Plate Trial S. and King's Plate. The Mark Casse gelding is coming off a 3 3/4-length win in the 1 1/8-mile Dominion Day S. (G3) and will look to go gate to wire here. He's raced at 1 1/16 miles one time previously when third by just half a length in the Eclipse (G2) two back. He could improve third start off the layoff, but I still give Money Supply a solid chance in his Woodbine debut. He has a superb late kick — he posted a 104 Late Pace rating last out — and may pull off the slight upset breaking from an inside post.