The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for March 1 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali proclaim their best bets and fades at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita, including their top picks in three Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races — the Gotham (G3), Fountain of Youth (G2), and San Felipe (G2).

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#5 Neat (8-1) in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita Saturday. A front-running type earlier in his career, Neat became more effective when employing stalking tactics last year, recording a fine win in the Hall of Fame (G2) three back. He did not run poorly against Brilliant Berti, the top three-year-old turf horse in America last season, in his last two outings, and Neat will open his four-year-old campaign in a speed-laden field, with at least four rivals doing their best running on or very close to the early lead. That will guarantee a good setup, and the Rob Atras-trained son of Constitution takes his track with him, winning over four different courses last year. A three-time stakes winner at the mile trip, Neat will add the services of a white-hot Jose Ortiz, who won four races, including a pair of stakes, when traveling to Oaklawn for their blockbuster Rebel (G2) program last weekend. 

Ashley Anderson: 

#5 Rashmi (7-2) in the one-mile Buena Vista (G2), the third race at Santa Anita on Saturday. The four-year-old by Oscar Performance has been red-hot racing a mile on the turf, with four victories at the distance in her last six starts overall, including the Megahertz (G3) against a handful of today's rivals. Her two losses in that span came when stretching out in the 1 1/4-mile American Oaks (G1) two back and when finishing a three-quarter-length second in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Woodbine over turf labeled good back in October. All four of Rashmi's career victories have occurred in one-mile races over firm turf, and she's 6-4-1-0 lifetime from the distance. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is a 22% winner this meet and a 25% winner with horses that won their last race. Umberto Rispoli (21% this meet) will regain the mount and has visited the winner's circle in both starts with Rashmi. I'll play the 7-2 choice over morning-line favorite #6 Alpha Bella (2-1), who finished second in her last three starts over dirt and will return to turf, where she's 2-for-12 and has not won on the grass since going gate to wire in the 1 1/2-mile La Prevoyante (G3) in January of 2024.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#9 Sharp Smile (3-1) in the Busher S. at Aqueduct Saturday. The gray filly registered Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70s in her first three outings, breaking her maiden over a sloppy track two back, and was never a serious factor, finishing third in a five-horse Busanda field last out. She didn’t earn much of a figure last time (84), and several rivals, including Fair Grounds invader #3 Drexel Hill (6-1), appear faster than Sharp Smile.

AA:

#7 Ball Don't Lie (7-2) in the sixth race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong allowance optional claimer for four-year-olds and up. The four-year-old gelding will make his fourth career start after finishing a seven-length second as the favorite in the seven-furlong Lazaro Barrera S. last May. The Mark Glatt pupil will return off a more than nine-month layoff and will drop in class off his first stakes effort but is set to face a number of more experienced rivals, and he will get a new rider as well. Jockey Antonio Fresu opted for #1 Shady Tiger (4-1), who has been working sharply for trainer Phil D'Amato and could benefit from a cutback in distance here. What's also interesting is Shady Tiger's regular rider Juan Hernandez will instead be on the mount for #4 Hard to Figure (10-1), a longshot for Bob Baffert who has put in several sharp workouts leading up to his five-year-old debut. Ball Don't Lie will pick up the services of Manuel Americano, who's off to a cold start this meet at 0-for-17 but strikes at an 18% rate in sprints. Considering the four-year-old is lightly raced compared to most of today's rivals and is returning off a lengthy layoff, I will play against the morning-line favorite and prefer the chances of a few others, including Shady Tiger, Hard to Figure, #9 Kangaroo Court (15-1) for Tim Yakteen, and #11 Momad (10-1), who recorded a 100 Brisnet Speed figure in his debut maiden win and put in a bullet work on Feb. 18 at Santa Anita.

Gotham (G3) pick:

JS:

#5 Sand Devil (9-5). After a pair of romping wins to open his career, Sand Devil received a stiff test winning the restricted Damon Runyan in early February. The promising Linda Rice-trained colt is eligible to benefit from the experience, and Sand Devil will bring imposing Brisnet Speed ratings to his first test against open rivals.

AA:

#3 Calling Card (6-1). The late closer by Complexity is on a two-loss streak and was originally entered in last week's John Battaglia Memorial S. but scratched out of the race to return to Aqueduct for its March 1 Kentucky Derby prep. Calling Card scored his lone win at the New York track when dominating by 17 lengths in a one-mile state-restricted maiden special weight in which he recorded a 93 BRIS figure. He then finished a seven-length third in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn and a five-length eighth in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte (G3) over a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. A return to Aqueduct and cutting back to a mile may benefit the colt, who will add blinkers for the first time and pick up rider Kendrick Carmouche, a 19% winner this meet. With so much speed signed on and money likely to follow #4 Sacrosanct (3-1) and #5 Sand Devil (9-5), I will back the later runner at a price.

Fountain of Youth (G2) pick:

JS:

#3 Burnham Square (5-2). He’s come on since adding blinkers two back, breaking his maiden by nine lengths and winning the Holy Bull (G3) by nearly two lengths after a less-than-favorable trip, and I don’t see why Burnham Square won’t have more to offer in the Fountain of Youth. The 1 1/16-mile race attracted plenty of speed, including a pair of six-furlong sprinters stretching to two turns, and the pace figures to be contested at some point during the opening stages. Burnham Square should be rolling in the final furlongs.

AA:

#3 Burnham Square (5-2). The Liam's Map gelding currently rides a two-win streak from today's distance of 1 1/16 miles and recorded a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed figure last out when winning the Holy Bull (G3) at this track. Trainer Ian Wilkes is winning at a 15% clip at Gulfstream this meet and with horses that won their last race. Edgard Zayas will retain the mount on the sophomore who posted a sharp five-furlong workout Feb. 22. Burnham Square has won from on the lead or coming off the pace, and he posted a 100 Late Pace rating last out when rallying to win over six rivals after starting more than 5 1/2 lengths back in last in his stakes debut. 

San Felipe (G2) pick:

JS:

#4 Rodriguez (9-5). A smashing gate-to-wire maiden winner two back, Rodriguez conceded the early lead, and a soft pace, to stablemate Citizen Bull when finishing second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) on Feb. 1, but I will look for a change in tactics with Flavien Prat picking up the mount Saturday. The Authentic colt has logged three sizzling works in the 28-day interim in preparation and stablemate Barnes has been content to track the pacesetter in both outings. Rodriguez is a candidate to keep moving forward off an encouraging stakes debut, and I expect a strong showing on the front end.

AA:

#2 Journalism (7-2). The Michael McCarthy pupil is already proven at the distance of 1 1/16 miles with a 3 1/2-length victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). The Curlin colt recorded a 99 BRIS figure in the effort with a 104 Late Pace rating, and I will back him over Baffert's trio, including short-priced runners #3 Barnes (1-1), who is trying a route for the first time, and #4 Rodriguez (9-5), who finished a 3 3/4-length second in his stakes debut last out to Citizen Bull in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3).