The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for May 18 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali argue their best bets and fades at Pimlico for the Preakness Day card and look at racing at Churchill Downs. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#1 Highland Chief (12-1) in the Dinner Party (G3) at Pimlico Saturday. Winner of the Man o’ War (G1) and Sycamore (G3) in 2022, Highland Chief returned from a 16 1/2-month layoff in the Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland on April 20 and performed respectably to split the field in fifth. It’s encouraging to see Graham Motion bring the seven-year-old back four weeks later and I like the cut back to 1 1/8 miles for the Irish bred. And finishing behind Silver Knott, Missed the Cut, and Bold Act last time, Highland Chief should relish the class relief on Saturday. I like his chances with a ground-saving trip.

Ashley Anderson:

#11 Witty (9-2) in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint S., the 11th race at Pimlico on Saturday. With rain in the forecast, this turf sprint could move to the main track, but either way Witty is a play, as he's won on both turf and dirt. The five-year-old gelding is coming off back-to-back victories, one in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer on Laurel's main track and most recently in the 5 1/2-furlong King T. Leatherbury S. on Laurel's turf. The Great Notion gray has also won three times and finished second twice from five starts at today's distance on turf, and he's got a win in his lone try on the grass at Pimlico. I'll back him at the price over morning line favorite #12 Beer Can Man (5-2), who won this race last year but has since gone on a five-win losing streak. The six-year-old has mainly been facing graded stakes company and will drop in class today, but I don't like his draw on the far outside, and with so much speed signed on this race should set up nicely for Witty as a deep closer.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#2 Prevalence (5-2) in the Maryland Sprint (G3) at Pimlico Saturday. A lesser talented version of Fierceness, Prevalence runs well when facing no adversity – he needs everything to go his way. Otherwise, the six-year-old gelding has shown a propensity to disappoint. He got the right trip last time from an outside post, winning stylishly by 6 1/2 lengths after surging to a clear lead on the backstretch, and earned a strong 98 Brisnet Speed rating. But Prevalence must deal with speed to his outside in the starting gate Saturday, which will make it difficult to work out a cushy trip, and I will fade him at short odds.

AA:

#10 Emmanuel (5-2) in the Dinner Party (G3), the 12th race at Pimlico. The five-year-old won two back in a Grade 3 at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream but faded badly over yielding turf in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) last out. He does best on firm turf, which we're unlikely to get Saturday, and the Todd Pletcher trainee's recent speed figures are a bit light compared to some of the other runners in the field. Emmanuel does have a win at 1 1/8 miles, but it was back in June of 2022, when he faced just five rivals in the Pennine Ridge S. (G2). His other try at 1 1/8 miles resulted in a half-length third in last year's Dinner Party. I prefer #9 Beatbox (5-1), who won the Fair Grounds (G3) at today's distance on soft turf two back and may improve off a nearly two-month layoff for Cherie DeVaux. #5 Running Bee (9-2) for Chad Brown and #3 Balnikhov (6-1) also look like viable win contenders among the field of 12.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Friday’s Allaire DuPont Distaff is the first of 15 stakes at Pimlico over the next two days and marks the first stakes attempt for #2 Lacie Be Good (10-1), who enters with a five-race win streak for Tom Amoss. After struggling against maiden special rivals in Kentucky last start, Lacie Be Good impressively broke her maiden when returning from a freshening at Delta Downs in late October and followed with three consecutive romping wins at the Louisiana oval. The four-year-old traveled to Oaklawn Park for her last outing, recording a 3 1/4-length victory over allowance foes, and I liked how she had another gear when challenged in upper stretch. Lacie Be Good has recorded seven works over the 68-day interim since her last start and the early/presser is well-drawn in a field lacking true speed. I like Lacie Be Good on the front end with Tyler Gaffalione.

AA:

On Saturday, Churchill Downs will host the 1 1/2-mile Louisville S. (G3), where #8 Bold Act () will look to rebound off his loss in the Elkhorn (G2), won by stablemate Silver Knott, who added another victory last weekend in the Man o' War (G2) at Belmont at the Big A. Trained by Charlie Appleby, the Godolphin homebred is 4-2-0-1 from the 12-furlong distance, and Bold Act's Brisnet Prime Power figure is a whopping 20 points higher than the next closest runner (Utah Beach) among the Louisville field. However, with rain in the forecast, and the potential for this event to run on the main track, Bold Act may need to wait longer to return to the winner's circle. He's 2-for-2 on all-weather but has never raced on the dirt. Should Churchill move to the main track, it may improve the chances of #3 Avenue (), who raced on all-weather in his last four, triumphing at 1 1/4 miles most recently under Luan Machado, who's winning at a 21% rate at Churchill this meet. #4 Guntown () is another late runner who has a chance in the mud. He's 6-2-2-1 on an off track, and he can improve second start off the claim for Mike Maker, a 38% winner at Churchill. #10 Utah Beach () is also a play, as he's regaining Jose Ortiz, who won with the English Channel gelding two back in a 1 1/2-mile allowance optional claimer on Gulfstream's turf.

Who is your pick in the Preakness? 

JS: 

I’ve seen projections of Imagination making an easy lead from post 8 in the Preakness, but Seize the Grey is drawn to his inside and showed high speed chasing opening splits in :22 and :44 3/5 before winning the Pat Day Mile (G2) two weeks ago. Four-time Preakness winner D. Wayne Lukas knows the miler’s only chance is wire-to-wire, the Coach essentially stole the 2013 Preakness with 15-1 Oxbow wire-to-wire, and I expect to see Seize the Grey sent hard with Jamie Torres.

I like #3 Catching Freedom to prove best from off the pace. And I will include my second choice, #8 Tuscan Gold, in multi-race wagers.

AA: 

With the scratch of Muth, I'll back the other Bob Baffert runner, #9 Imagination (6-1), who will look to get out front early under Frankie Dettori. The Into Mischief colt has never finished worse than second from six career starts, and he was beaten a neck as the favorite last out in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1). The $1 million yearling purchase clocked a career-best 97 BRIS figure last out, and he has the type of run style that has succeeded most often at the Preakness over the last decade. Baffert also has a record eight Preakness victories, including his win with National Treasure in 2023. I see Imagination winning in similar gate-to-wire fashion here, and he put in a sharp six-furlong workout May 10, giving me confidence he'll come out strong on Saturday.