The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Nov. 15-16 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali talk their best bets and fades at Churchill Downs and Aqueduct. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#11 Pens Street (6-1) in the seventh race at Churchill Downs Saturday, the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper. This six-year-old mare has progressed nicely in a trio of starts since being claimed by Chris Hartman and Pens Street figures to receive an ideal setup for her late kick off a brief freshening. She ran well when returning from a short rest at Churchill Downs this summer and appears to have found her niche at the one-turn mile distance, recording a pair of fast performances in recent starts. 

Ashley Anderson:

#2 General Mathis (12-1) in the Claiming Crown Jewel, Saturday's 10th race at Churchill Downs. The seven-year-old gelding will make his first start off the claim for trainer Larry Rivelli and won last out with a career-best 95 Brisnet Speed figure in a 1 1/8-mile claimer over a sloppy Churchill track on Sept. 27. Rivelli is a 32% winner first start off the claim and a 34% winner with a positive ROI with horses returning off a layoff of 46 to 90 days. Gerardo Corrales will regain the mount and is winning at a 17% clip at Churchill this meet, plus he's 3-for-6 with a positive ROI paired with Rivelli over the last two months. There's not a ton of speed signed on, which could make 2-1 morning-line favorite Money Supply vulnerable as a deep closer. General Mathis likes to sit right off the pace, and I'll look for him to win at a big price on Saturday.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#5 Final Verdict (2-1) in the eighth race at Churchill Saturday, the Claiming Crown Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial. Ned Barker has done an outstanding job spotting the four-year-old since joining his stable this summer, recording three wins and a pair of thirds from five starts, but Final Verdict will step up to face tougher competition in this spot, including #7 Mid Day Image (6-1), who was holding his own against stakes quality rivals at Saratoga and Laurel Park this summer. Final Verdict has squared off against softer competition in his recent outings, and I will take on the New York shipper at short odds.

AA:

#8 Sugoi (2-1) in Race 11, the finale at Churchill, on Saturday. The seven-year-old gelding will drop in class after finishing a 5 1/4-length fifth in the 1 1/2-mile Sycamore (G3) at Saratoga. His last win came four starts back when making his first start off the claim for Mike Maker in the Louisville S. (G3), where Sugoi got away with setting glacial fractions and beat heavy morning line favorite Bold Act when going gate to wire in 2:30.37 at 1 1/2 miles on the turf. Sugoi appears to be a need-the-lead type, and he'll have other early speed to contend with on Saturday. #10 Journeyman (4-1) may try to go for the early lead, and #2 Devil's Harvest is an early pacesetter type. #1 Bizzee Channel (15-1) has also shown speed in the past and may switch up tactics here. I'll look for a runner coming off the pace to get the win here and will fade Sugoi at a short price.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Churchill Downs will host the 26th Claiming Crown, an eight-race event for horses who competed at a specified claiming level (or less) within a given time range, and Mike Maker leads all trainers with 22 Claiming Crown wins. He will be well-represented again Saturday, entering a total of eight horses, including #5 Dana’s Beauty (4-5) in the Tiara, #8 Sugoi (2-1) in the Emerald, #2 On a Spree (3-1) in the Kent Stirling Memorial, and #10 Hilarious Affair (3-1) in the Tom Metzen.

AA:

Lexington, Kentucky native Bentley Combs will make his return to racing as a solo trainer on Friday at Churchill Downs with #11 City of Clouds (12-1) in Race 9. The four-year-old by City of Light will drop in class in his fifth career start at Churchill and put in a sharp workout at the Churchill Downs Trackside Training Center on Nov. 8. Combs ran his own barn from 2017 through early 2024, then opted to work as an assistant to Chad Brown in the spring. Previously as a solo trainer, Combs set a record with three consecutive victories in Oaklawn's 1 3/4-mile Trail's End, traditionally the final race of the Oaklawn meeting. He also finished with a 40% win percentage and 70% in-the-money percentage during the 2023 meet.