The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Nov. 28-Dec. 1 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali hash out their best bets and fades for Thanksgiving week at Churchill Downs. Ashley and James give their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#3 Camp Hope (8-1) in Friday’s sixth race at Churchill Downs. A stakes-winning gelding, the six-year-old recorded a pair of commendable efforts on Churchill’s turf during the spring meet, finishing second and fourth, and was claimed for $80,000 by Mike Maker out of the latter event. After a freshening, Maker tried him at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles, gauging his ability for longer distances, but those attempts didn’t pan out and Camp Hope now cuts back to a preferable trip. He held versus tougher competition at Churchill earlier this year, and I will look for a top showing from Camp Hope in the third start off the claim.

Ashley Anderson:

#7 Minoushka (9-2) in the Mrs. Revere (G2), the 10th race at Churchill on Friday. The three-year-old by Starspangledbanner won last out in her U.S. debut for trainer Brendan Walsh and overcame a difficult trip to win by three lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland. The British-bred filly broke a step slow from the far outside post, bumped a rival at the start, and then settled at the rear along the inside before saving ground around the far turn and finding room between horses to draw clear in the stretch. She finished with an 86 Brisnet Speed figure and a 105 Late Pace rating when beating 10 rivals, and with a smoother trip, I expect even better numbers. Minoushka will return off a 50-day layoff and will keep Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. She's taken on top competition in France and was beaten just a neck in a Group 3 earlier in April at Longchamp. I'll back the closer, who is 8-2-2-2 lifetime on the turf.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#6 Implicated (5-2) in the Thursday’s Cardinal (G3) at Churchill. A five-time winner at a mile or 1 1/16 miles, this four-year-old filly weakened to fourth when trying nine furlongs in a conditioned allowance against six rivals last fall. She came right back to win the Pebbles (G3) at a mile, and then strung together respectable performances earlier this year at shorter distances, but she’s given way readily in the last two outings at a favored distance, finishing 11th and 10th at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. Her present form appears questionable, and I will try to beat Implicated at an unfavorable distance.

AA:

#2 Tarifa (9-5) in the 1 1/8-mile Falls City S. (G3) on Thanksgiving Day at Churchill. The Brad Cox runner made a name for herself earlier in the year as the top points earner on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks (G1) but finished 18 lengths back in ninth to Thorpedo Anna in the premier race for three-year-old fillies in May. Last out, Tarifa returned to the winner's circle for the first time since her Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) triumph in March, but she confronted just four rivals when winning the Mother Goose (G2) in gate-to-wire fashion at Aqueduct on Oct. 26. The Bernardini three-year-old earned a 93 Brisnet Speed figure with a 117 Class Rating and will now return to a track where she has failed to finish in the money from two career starts. Some of her rivals in the Falls City have recorded higher BRIS figures or Class Ratings in their most recent outings, including #4 Musical Mischief (2-1), who just won the 1 1/16-mile Locust Grove (G2) at Churchill with a career-best 100 BRIS figure. #1 Neon Icon (15-1), who is cross-entered in Friday's Mrs. Revere (G2) on the turf, is also an intriguing longshot for Rusty Arnold and will bring a strong closing kick. 

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

One of three staples since the opening of Churchill Downs, along with the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1), Friday’s 150th edition of the Clark (G2) features an ample amount of pace, and I’ll look for the 1 1/8-mile race set up for a runner with a strong closing kick. #7 Rattle N Roll (5-1) appears formidable in the second start back for Kenny McPeek, but I will give the edge #3 Crupi (4-1), who should be higher odds than two-time Churchill stakes winner Rattle N Roll despite the morning line. In Crupi’s last five starts at the distance, the four-year-old has recorded a pair of stakes wins and three graded placings, including a runner-up in the Whitney (G1) and a third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). I like how the chestnut came at the end of last year for Todd Pletcher and will tab Crupi from off the pace.

Saturday's Stars of Tomorrow program (exclusively for two-year-olds) includes the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), a Kentucky Derby qualifier awarding 10 points to the winner. Iroquois (G3) romper Jonathan’s Way will try to rebound after faltering in his first two-turn start, weakening to seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but the 5-1 third choice had no apparent excuse, and I like playing against short-priced Breeders’ Cup horses coming back on short rest following disappointing efforts. A gate-to-wire winner of the Iroquois, Jonathan’s Way will go favored Saturday in a speed-laden field, with #6 Clock Tower, #8 First Resort, and possibly #10 Redacted all candidates to gun for the early lead, and I’m picking #3 Tiztastic to prove best from off the pace following a rallying second in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill.
 

AA:

Churchill Downs will host the inaugural Cherokee Mile as part of the 12-race closing day card on Sunday, Dec. 1. The one-mile event on the main track will offer a $250,000 purse and drew an excellent field of 11 runners, including recent Ack Ack (G3) winner Three Technique, who last appeared in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) at Del Mar in November. In addition to the seven-year-old graded stakes winner, trainer Jason Cook also entered Quality Chic, a four-year-old gelding by Quality Road who makes his first start off the claim for Cook. Other notable contenders include stakes winner Frosted Departure in his first start off the claim for Chris Hartman, plus Bill Mott trainees Scotland — runner-up in September's Vosburgh (G3) at Aqueduct — and Rocket Can, the ninth-place finisher in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1). The most lightly-raced runner in the field is Brunacini, a three-year-old by Dortmund who was a surprise winner of the Perryville (G3) at Keeneland in October. Trained by Matthew Sims, the colt will break from the rail post in his fourth career start and will stretch back out to a route distance for the second time. Two back, he stretched out for the first time in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill and had the lead in the stretch but finished a half-length fifth to a next-out winner. He's 2-for-3 lifetime and will retain rider Luan Machado, a 14% winner this meet.