The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Nov. 7 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali defend their best bets and fades at Churchill Downs, Woodbine, and Aqueduct. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#8 Master Piece (5-2) to make a successful title defense in Saturday’s Red Smith (G2) at Aqueduct. A Chilean Group 2 winner in 2019, Master Piece earned his first U.S. stakes win in the 2022 Eddie Read (G2) at Del Mar and the gray gelding has continued to hold his form at age eight for Rick Dutrow, improving to 2-for-2 over Aqueduct’s turf when capturing the Fort Marcy (G2) this spring and recording a rallying third in the John Henry Turf Championship (G2) last out. I like the tactical ability he’s displayed in recent starts (he figures to get the jump on late runners Integration and Rebel Red), and Master Piece will look to strike from just off the pace with Jose Lezcano.

Ashley Anderson:

#3 Stormcast (12-1) in Saturday's Bessarabian S. (G3), a seven-furlong sprint on Woodbine's all-weather. The Mitole filly won two back racing 1 1/16 miles at the track in the Bison City S. and posted triple-digit E1 and E2 Brisnet Speed figures. She showed similar early speed three back in a 1 1/8-mile allowance optional claimer and held a lead into the stretch but was beaten to second as the favorite. Last out, she raced in a turf stakes at 1 1/4 miles and came home a half-length second. Trainer Mark Casse will now cut her back to seven furlongs, a distance from which she broke her maiden on the turf. As the lone true early pacesetter in the field, she should be able to control the pace from out the gate and will pick up rider Rafael Hernandez, who boasts a positive ROI paired up with Casse over the last two months. Stormcast has also finished in the money in all four career starts on all-weather, and her return to the surface should bring out another sharp performance. I'll back the early speed at a price.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#5 Fashionably Fab (3-1) appears vulnerable on the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles in Saturday’s Maple Leaf (G3) at Woodbine. The four-year-old filly has run her best races at 1 1/16-mile distances, dramatically winning the Ontario Matron (G3) from far off the pace last time, and Fashionably Fab will face better in this spot. #2 Millie Girl (8-1), #12 Queen Regent (4-1), and #13 Caitlinhergrtness (5-1) all rate serious win consideration, and I will fade Fashionably Fab from my wagers.

AA:

#10 Cash Equity (5-2) in R10, the River City S. (G3), at Churchill on Saturday. The Saffie Joseph trainee will stretch back out to 1 1/8 miles here and has been racing shorter in his last three. He finished second as a 14-1 longshot two back in the one-mile Mint Millions (G3) at Kentucky Downs, then jumped up to Grade 1 company in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland and was a 4 3/4-length seventh to Carl Spackler. The six-year-old gelding has raced at 1 1/8 miles six times but won just once, settling for minor awards on four occasions. Based on the projected pace scenario of the field, the late closer will likely not have a ton of speed to run into, and I like the chances of a few other runners better. The second choice on the morning line, #4 Reckoning Force (3-1), just finished a neck third in the 1 1/8-mile Knickerbocker (G3) at Aqueduct and will regain Tyler Gaffalione, with whom he finished a half-length second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill back in June. The four-year-old then won with Gaffalione at 1 3/16 miles at Saratoga while recording a career-high 107 BRIS figure. #7 Wonderful Justice (12-1) is also an intriguing longshot for Joe Sharp (25% winner this meet), who wired a 1 3/16-mile allowance optional claimer last out, and #8 Battle of Normandy (6-1) showed a big closing kick when winning a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct on Sept. 20 to mark his third straight victory.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Liberal Arts, a Grade 3 winner last year who made three starts in Kentucky Derby preps before heading to the sidelines earlier this year, came back a winner for new trainer Brad Cox on Wednesday, and the two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) with Immersive last weekend. Cox is loaded with juveniles this fall: recent Rags to Riches winner Good Cheer and Tempted (G3) romper Stunner also will be aimed toward a possible Kentucky Oaks (G1) bid next spring, and Cox debuted Disco Time at Churchill Downs last Friday, a Not This Time colt who won going away by more than three lengths over seven furlongs as the favorite. Disco Time is a Juddmonte Farm homebred, and the same connections will send out #5 Final Gambit (7-2) in Saturday’s fifth race at Churchill, a one-mile turf test for two-year-olds. By Not This Time, the gray colt will make his first start with Tyler Gaffalione, and Final Gambit is out of a turf-winning Tapit mare who counts French Group 1 winner Announce as a half-brother. 

AA:

Opening weekend of Aqueduct's fall meet will feature the one-mile Pebbles S. (G3) on Friday. The turf test for three-year-old fillies drew a main field of eight, plus two main-track-only entries, and Chad Brown has two chances to score his third straight win in the Pebbles S. and seventh since 2015. He saddles the morning-line favorite, #6 Oversubscribed (2-1), a Klaravich Stables color bearer going for her third win of the season. She won the one-mile Wild Applause S. three back and was a three-quarter-length second in the Lake George (G3) at the same distance before finishing a distant sixth in the 1 1/8-mile Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G2). Brown's other runner is #1 Dea Matrona (12-1), who moves up in class off a late-closing victory in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer. The Brown contingent will run into European shipper #3 See You Around (8-1), who makes her first U.S. start with Christophe Clement's barn, and the American Pharoah filly #5 Jody's Pride (6-1), a participant on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) trail who will try turf for the first time. Also making a return to racing is #8 Way to Be Marie (9-2), the runner-up in the 1 1/16-mile Edgewood (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard who failed as the favorite last out in the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) on June 1 at Churchill Downs.