The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Oct. 20-21 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, Darin Zoccali, and Nick Tammaro defend their best bets and fades at Keeneland and Parx, plus they look ahead to British Champions Day at Ascot. Ashley offers her thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin and Nick's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

Ashley Anderson:

#3 Celestial Moon (5-1) in the Appreciation Mile S., the fifth race at Parx on Saturday. The one-mile event on the main track drew a field of nine, with a decent amount of speed signed on. Listed as a late closer in the Brisnet Past Performances, Celestial Moon switched up tactics last out in his first start for the barn of Jamie Ness and pressed the early pace before quickly clearing to win by 4 3/4 lengths in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Delaware Park. The Malibu Moon gelding clocked a 95 Brisnet Speed figure in the effort with a 120 Class Rating and stopped the clock in 1:39.63. The win improved the five-year-old's record at a mile to 6-4-0-1, and he'll pick up hot jockey Mychel Sanchez, a 25% winner this meet, on the move up in class. Ness is also a 27% winner at Parx and a 31% winner with horses coming off a win. I'll back the versatile runner over morning-line favorite #6 Adero (5-2), who looked flat last out in the Parx Dirt Mile on Sept. 21.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

AA:

#8 Always Smiling (2-1) in the second race at Keeneland on Saturday, a six-furlong claimer for fillies and mares. The Bayern filly will ship to Keeneland for the first time after reaching the winner's circle in a five-furlong allowance optional claimer over a muddy Canterbury track in late August. The four-year-old posted a light 73 BRIS figure in the effort while scoring her third win from five starts since transferring to trainer Matt Williams. Two of her recent victories came at five furlongs, while the other occurred in a six-furlong claimer at Canterbury back on June 2. Always Smiling recorded a 73 BRIS figure in her lone prior success at six furlongs and has failed to reach the winner's circle in the other eight times she competed at the distance.

She'll also pick up a new rider in Francisco Arrieta, who's been a bit cold at Keeneland this meet, with a 23-1-1-4 record. The Purple Rein Stables color-bearer is also returning off a nearly two-month layoff and moving up in class today. Comparing her recent Speed figures to other rivals in today's field, I'll play against the short-priced morning-line favorite and will instead back #1 Tell Me When (6-1) in her first start for Hugo Andrade. The Midshipman filly won last out in a six-furlong claimer over a sloppy Churchill track while in the barn of Michelle Lovell, and her winning time came in at 1:11.71, nearly a second faster than Always Smiling's most recent winning time at six furlongs that she completed over a fast track.

What Else Is Worth Noting

AA:

Keeneland will host the 1 1/2-mile Dowager S. (G3) for fillies and mares on Sunday, with recent Ladies Marathon (G3) heroine Neecie Marie listed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. The Cross Traffic filly succeeded last out on the stretch-out in distance to 1 5/16 miles on Kentucky Downs' turf and will travel even farther on Sunday as she goes for her third graded victory. The late closer will break from the far outside under Joel Rosario, who picked up the mount in the Ladies Marathon. 

To Neecie Marie's inside is multiple-graded stakes-placed #11 Atomic Blonde (10-1), who most recently won the 1 1/2-mile Keertana S. at Churchill while defeating today's rival #7 Chop Chop (5-1) by half a length. Chop Chop got the better of Atomic Blonde one start prior in the 1 1/2-mile Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland, and with a win on Sunday, the Brad Cox runner would become just the third horse to sweep both of Keeneland's 1 1/2-mile graded stakes for fillies and mares in the same year. She's currently on a four-race losing streak and finished a six-length fifth to Neecie Marie in the Ladies Marathon last out. In addition to some familiar rivals in the Dowager, she will go up against Australian shipper #10 Let'sbefrankbaby (8-1) in her first start with Mark Casse and Ladies Marathon third-place finisher Three Priests (8-1), who will make her first start for Graham Motion. The late closer is eligible to improve second start off the layoff, and she'll retain the services of John Velazquez, who won last weekend's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1).