The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Oct. 5 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali debate their best bets and fades at Keeneland, Belmont at the Big A, and Santa Anita. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#10 Desert Duke (6-1) in the fourth race at Keeneland Saturday. After going off form last year, the four-year-old gelding began turning things around for Chris Hartman three starts back, recording an encouraging second most recently in a deep Kentucky Downs allowance. Desert Duke brought similar improving form to his lone Keeneland appearance last year, recording a 5 3/4-length allowance triumph at Saturday’s distance, and he’s poised for another big effort here. 

Ashley Anderson:

#1 One Timer (15-1) in the Woodford (G2) at Keeneland on Saturday. The 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint drew a full field of 12 plus three also-eligibles, with a number of rivals from the recent Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs reopposing each other. One such runner is One Timer, who finished a 5 1/4-length sixth to top turf sprinter Cogburn in the six-furlong fixture on Sept. 7. The five-year-old gelding was returning off just a week of rest after finishing a head second to Arrest Me Red in a competitive 6 1/2-furlong allowance at the same track. The Larry Rivelli trainee clocked a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed figure in his runner-up effort, and I look for him to turn in a better performance today with nearly a month since his most recent start.

One Timer is cutting back to a distance from which he has earned three wins and a pair of second-place finishes from six lifetime starts, and he'll regain rider E.T. Baird, who is 6-for-8 on the mount of One Timer. His two losses with the five-year-old came when a two-length ninth in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) and a head second to Gear Jockey in the 2022 Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs. Comparing his recent form and speed figures to the rest of the field, I think One Timer is a chance at a big price.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#5 Eglise (8-5) in the 11th race at Keeneland Saturday. After surrendering a clear lead in deep stretch at 1 1/16 miles last time, the three-year-old will cut back to seven furlongs, but I don’t think the distance that cost him last time; Eglise coughed up a clear lead at six furlongs two back. He figures to be overbet while stepping up to face better competition here, losing to a pair of suspect rivals in the last two outings, and I prefer the chances of #1 Jungle Law, #7 It’s My Life, and #9 Top Gun Rocket over Eglise.

AA:

#4 Gina Romantica (3-1) in the one-mile First Lady S. (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday. The Chad Brown trainee will face three talented stablemates as well as recent Ladies Turf (G3) heroine Walkathon, who will try for a fourth straight victory on Saturday. Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) romper Ag Bullet is also in the mix and posted a career-best 106 Brisnet Speed figure in her Kentucky Downs triumph, good for the highest last-race speed rating among today's field.

As for Gina Romantica, the Into Mischief mare has been one of the more disappointing turf females in Brown's barn this season, with an 0-for-4 record, including a poor showing in her season debut in the 1 1/16-mile Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland in April. She followed up that defeat with a 1 3/4-length fifth to today's rival and stablemate Chili Flag in the one-mile Just a Game (G1), then suffered narrow losses in the 1 1/8-mile Diana (G1) and 1 1/16-mile Ballston Spa (G2) in her last two starts. Gina Romantica did win last year's edition of the First Lady, and she's 5-2-1-0 from today's distance as well as 2-for-3 at Keeneland. However, based on her recent form and the competition she'll encounter today, I'll fade the struggling five-year-old.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Saturday’s Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland has serious Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) implications. North American-based horses captured seven of nine editions of the Mile from 2012-19, but Euros have won an unprecedented four consecutive since. One could argue the quality of the overseas contingent, with Godolphin winning the last three editions with Master of the Seas, Modern Games, and Space Blues, but I think a big part of their success has been how soft our turf milers have been since Uni and Got Stormy finished 1-2 in the 2019 Mile at Santa Anita.

This year looks different. Johannes, winner of recent City of Hope Mile (G2) and unbeaten from four starts this season, is better than any North American-based turf miler over the last four years. #9 Carl Spackler (2-1) and/or #3 More Than Looks (3-1) can join Johannes with a strong showing, and I excited to see how the duo fares against a pair of international raiders, #1 Mountain Bear and #2 Kikkuli.

Saturday’s Thoroughbred Club of America (G2), a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), could produce a top contender in #3 Brightwork (2-1). Trainer John Ortiz didn’t sound enthused about targeting the Filly & Mare Sprint following her excellent comeback win in the Aug. 31 Prioress (G3), but the three-year-old filly has trained sensationally since and can earn an expenses-paid trip to the championship race. A Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs, Brightwork has shown glimpses of brilliance in her sprint races, and she is a candidate to keep showing in the second start of 2024.

Thorpedo Anna lays over the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) picture presently, but the Classic (G1) remains an option and the three-year-old filly must rebound from a pair of grueling races, a head second in the Travers (G1) and a less-than-inspiring win in the Cotillion (G1). I will be watching to see how the final prep goes for her main rivals Sunday. Champion older dirt female #1 Idiomatic, who is readying for a Distaff title defense at Del Mar, headlines the cast in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, a race she won easily by open lengths last year. #4 Raging Sea, who notched her second consecutive graded win when upsetting Idiomatic in the Aug. 23 Personal Ensign (G1), will look to hold her form in the Beldame (G2) at Aqueduct.

AA:

A number of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) prep races will take place over the weekend at Keeneland, Santa Anita, Belmont at the Big A, and Longchamp in Paris. Ten points will go to the winner of each of the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita, and the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct for the main Road to the Kentucky Derby, and 10 points are afforded to the winner in Longchamp for the European Derby trail.

Likewise, on the Kentucky Oaks trail, winning two-year-old fillies will receive 10 points in the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland on Friday, and on Saturday in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita and Frizette (G1) at Aqueduct.

For first-crop sire McKinzie, it could end up becoming a fruitful weekend. The son of Street Sense is well-represented in the two-year-old races, with Tom Amoss filly Quickick a 4-1 choice in the Alcibiades; Scottish Lassie and recent maiden winner Paradise City both entered in the Frizette; Hopeful S. (G1) hero Chancer McPatrick a likely favorite in the Champagne; and Del Mar Futurity (G1) runner-up McKinzie Street going up against a strong Bob Baffert contingent in the American Pharoah. McKinzie currently ranks fifth by progeny earnings among first-crop sires, needing about $675,500 to catch Tiz the Law. However, if a lot goes his way this weekend, he could rise to the top of the first-crop sire rankings. As of Oct. 3, he has produced nine winners from 49 starters. Chad Brown pupil Chancer McPatrick has been his most successful offspring thus far, with $222,000 in earnings from a 2-for-2 lifetime mark.