The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Sept. 14 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali talk their best bets and fades for Churchill Downs' opening weekend and the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1), plus they look at Woodbine's Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" events on Saturday and Belmont at Aqueduct. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#9 Strong State (5-1) in the Pocahontas (G2) at Churchill Downs. A smart maiden winner over Will Not Be Swayed on Saratoga’s opening day two starts back, Strong State suffered a tough trip when jumping to stakes competition off a 51-day layoff in the Spinaway (G1). She dropped back to ninth between calls after breaking on top and didn’t appear happy (tossing her head) over the muddy track while advancing past rivals on the far turn. When she leveled off in the stretch, Strong State finished boldly to be a clear fourth, giving every indication she will have more to offer following the learning experience. Al Stall Jr. adds blinkers, Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks with the promising miss, and I’m expecting a much better trip.

Ashley Anderson:

#3 Harrodsburg (6-1) in race 6 at Churchill, a seven-furlong allowance for three-year-olds and older. The four-year-old gelding will go up against 11 rivals, most of whom own just one career win on their resume. The early pacesetter is 4-for-7 lifetime with a second and a third, and he's 3-for-4 in 2024, including a 5 1/2-length victory at Saturday's distance over a sloppy Keeneland track in April. The son of Constitution was conditioned by Rob Atras earlier in the year and will make his third start since transferring to the barn of Michael Tomlinson. Harrodsburg won his first start with Tomlinson in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill back in late June, then failed as the favorite when drifting out in the stretch last out in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Ellis Park. Tomlinson is an 18% winner with beaten favorites, and hot jockey Jose Ortiz will pick up the mount. Harrodsburg also posted a fast five-furlong workout on Sept. 7 at Churchill, where he's won twice from two starts at the track, plus he's 2-for-2 racing on an off-track, which he will likely get Saturday with heavy rain in the forecast over the weekend.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#5 Owen Almighty (5-2) in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs. The colt faces steeper competition over added ground after needing 13-plus seconds to complete his final eighth of a mile in the Juvenile S. at Ellis Park, and four of his rivals have earned superior Brisnet Speed ratings. Owen Almighty remains a promising sprint type, but I will try to beat him at short odds Saturday.

AA:

#12 Stilettos (4-1) in the Pocahontas (G3), the eighth race at Churchill on Saturday. The Upstart filly is unbeaten from two starts and won on debut by 16 lengths in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Lone Star on June 29. She then triumphed by 1 1/2 lengths in the seven-furlong Debutante S. and crossed the finish line in 1:25.14 when wiring the field. She'll have a number of runners looking to contend for the early lead on Saturday, and a few of her rivals have shown better speed in recent starts. I prefer the chances of #13 Kimchi Cat (9-2), who just dominated by 3 1/2 lengths in the 5 1/2-furlong Bolton Landing S. at Saratoga, where she tracked the pace on the outside and took the lead while set down in upper stretch before drawing away under strong urging. #3 La Cara (5-1) is also returning off an eight-length, gate-to-wire win in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga and posted a finishing time that's almost two seconds faster than Stilettos' at the same distance.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Following a strong win in the Beverly D. (G2) at Colonial Downs, #2 Moira (7-5) tops an outstanding field in Saturday’s E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine. I rate Moira as the leading North American candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) at Del Mar this fall, and I expect to see horse-for-the-course #3 Fev Rover (7-2) complete the exacta like she did in the Beverly D. Third-placer Neecie Marie flattered the Beverly D. form with a convincing win in last Saturday’s Ladies Marathon (G3) at Kentucky Downs, and I’m excited to see another matchup between Moira and Fev Rover. 

In the Woodbine Mile (G1), #2 Naval Power (even-money) will try to give Godolphin a third consecutive win (following the successes of Modern Game and Master of the Seas), but I’m eager to take on the expected odds-on choice. Since making five starts in 2022, Naval Power has raced sparingly, making only three starts over the last seven months, and he’s coming back from a 133-day rest after coughing up the lead in the stretch of the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs. I’m a little dubious about the quality of that race and his non-threatening second in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) two back looks better on paper than it really was in my estimation. Godolphin always merits respect in these Woodbine stakes, but I think Naval Power is a little dressed up and vulnerable at short odds. #5 Filo Di Arianna (5-2) is my top choice, and #1 Playmea Tune (12-1) will be included in any gimmick wagers. 

AA:

Woodbine will host three Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" events on Saturday, including two for juveniles. The Grade 1 Summer S. will offer a bid to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and features 14 in the main field plus three also-eligibles. Seven of the runners in the main body are trained by Mark Casse, and in total he entered seven fillies in the Summer S. All seven are cross-entered in the Grade 1 Natalma, a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). His shortest-priced runners in the Summer are #3 Vixen (10-1), a filly who broke her maiden by 4 3/4 lengths at second asking, and #14 Winterberry (10-1), another filly who won on debut in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Woodbine's all-weather on Aug. 24. Both could end up in the Natalma instead and boast similar 10-1 odds in the fillies race.

The morning-line favorite in the Summer is #9 Al Qudra (3-1), a No Nay Never colt coming off a 2 1/4-length victory in the seven-furlong Pat Eddery S. at Ascot. Trainer Charlie Appleby and rider William Buick paired up to win the Summer S. with Mysterious Night in 2022, and the pair have also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) together twice — with Line of Duty in 2018 and Modern Games in 2022. Modern Games also went on to win the Breeders' Cup Mile, a race that will also offer a bid to the winner of the Woodbine Mile (G1) on Saturday. Appleby has the top runner in Saturday's Mile field as well, with #2 Naval Power (1-1), who finished runner-up in his last two efforts, his only previous starts in North America.

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