The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Sept. 7-8 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali defend their best bets and fades for Kentucky Downs, Colonial Downs, and Del Mar. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#9 Anglophile (10-1) in Saturday’s Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) at Kentucky Downs. 

With confirmed speed types in Balladeer, Chief Little Rock, Get Smokin, and Sugoi entered, the 1 1/2-mile turf affair figures to set up nicely for a finisher, and Anglophile delivered a strong late kick winning the 1 5/16-mile Dueling Grounds Derby (G3) (now the Nashville Derby) last year, registering a 118 Brisnet Late Pace after outfinishing multiple Grade 1 winner Far Bridge by a half-length.

Kentucky Downs is his favorite course, and Anglophile appears to be rounding into top form following a rallying third in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup at Ellis Park. I like his chances from off the pace.

Ashley Anderson:

#10 Nobals (6-1) in the Turf Sprint (G2), the 11th race at Kentucky Downs on Saturday. 

The morning-line favorite, #4 Cogburn (6-5), is one of the top turf runners in the country and is 2-for-2 in 2024, but I will try to beat the Steve Asmussen pupil coming off an almost-three-month layoff at the track where he suffered his lone loss from six career turf starts last September. Instead I will back 2023 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) upsetter Nobals, who owns an 11-5-1-0 record on the grass and is making his second start off the layoff. 

In Nobals' lone previous start this season, he was returning off more than eight months of rest and came home a three-quarter-length fourth as the favorite in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Saratoga. Two back, he posted a career-high 99 Brisnet Speed figure in his Breeders' Cup triumph and rallied from far back to win by a neck in the five-furlong sprint. 

The Noble Mission gelding usually likes to sit closer to the pace or go for the early lead, but his proven versatility makes him an intriguing prospect here. His trainer, Larry Rivelli, is also a 32% winner second start off the layoff and a 29% winner in graded stakes with a +5.60 return on investment. Rider Gerardo Corrales, who had the mount in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, is also off to a hot start at Kentucky Downs, with a 3-for-9 record.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#9 Pounce (7-2) in Saturday’s Music City (G2) at Kentucky Downs. 

This filly switched tactics and got up to win the Lake George (G3) last out, but Pounce regressed off a hard-fought win in the Herecomesthebride (G3) earlier this year and will be hard-pressed to replicate her last performance on the cutback to a sprint. I prefer #4 Pipsy, winner of the six-furlong Soaring Softly (G3) in her U.S. debut two back, and Pounce’s stablemate, Ontario Cotillion (G3) winner #3 Time to Dazzle, over the morning-line favorite.

AA:

#2 Integration (8-5) in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2), a Breeders' Cup Win and You're In on Saturday's card at Kentucky Downs. 

The four-year-old got off to a hot start in 2023 and won his first three career starts, two of which came at Colonial Downs before he romped to a five-length victory in the Hill Prince S. (G2) at Aqueduct last November. His four-year-old campaign has been less smooth, with just one win from five starts that came against two rivals in the Million Preview S. at Colonial in July. Last out, he stretched out to 1 1/4 miles and finished second to Nations Pride in the Arlington Million (G1). 

Integration had a strong closing kick, with a 117 Late Pace rating, but considering his overall inconsistency this season and the fact he's done his best running at Colonial, I will fade the short-priced favorite at Kentucky Downs.

Integration's last-out 95 BRIS figure is lower than the last-out figure of a handful of today's rivals, such as #1 Highway Robber (6-1), who posted a 99 BRIS figure in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup S.; last year's Turf Cup winner #4 Get Smokin', who clocked a 106 in his recent United Nations (G2) win; and #7 Tawny Port (8-1), who also recorded a 106 when a neck third in the United Nations. 

At the 8-5 price, I will play against Integration against a deep field of 11 rivals, including European shipper #11 Chief Little Rock (4-1), who will make his U.S. debut for world-class turf trainer Aidan O'Brien.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Six stakes highlight Saturday’s 12-race closing-day program at Colonial Downs, highlighted by the $500,000 Virginia Derby (G3). 

Grade 2-winning millionaire Webslinger and Tyro S. winner Governor Sam appear formidable at short odds in the first two stakes events, the Colonial Cup and Rosie’s S, respectively. The next three (Kitten’s Joy, Da Hoss, and Virginia Oaks) feature large fields with lukewarm morning-line favorites. 

It’s a good betting menu for horseplayers, and I will take on the 3-1 early favorite in the Virginia Derby, #3 Deterministic, who is winless from two turf attempts and has not gone on since an impressive win in the Gotham (G3) in March. 

I prefer a pair of up-and-coming types, #1 Herchee (5-1) and #7 Desvio (8-1), who have each won twice on turf.

AA:

Del Mar will host a pair of Grade 1s for juveniles over the weekend, including the Del Mar Debutante on Saturday and the Del Mar Futurity on Sunday. 

Unbeaten Nooni headlines the Debutante and will go for a third victory after wiring a five-furlong maiden special weight by 9 1/2 lengths and getting the same type of trip when winning by 1 1/2 lengths in the six-furlong Sorrento (G3). Vodka With a Twist will reoppose the Bob Baffert filly in her third start since transferring to Phil D'Amato's barn. The runner-up in the Sorrento is by first-crop sire Thousand Words and was fractious behind the gate before going three-wide and finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind Nooni. The filly may get a better trip today in her second start under Mike Smith.

On Sunday, Baffert will also go for a record-extending 18th win in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He's got a handful of two-year-olds in the seven-furlong event, and any one of them could end up a good chance on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, as Baffert's suspension at the track has ended and he can again compete in the Kentucky Derby (G1).