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Audible

Audible (Coglianese Photos)

Audible Career Statistics                                                                           

Kentucky Derby Thoughts by John Mucciolo

New York-bred son of Into Mischief didn’t enter 2018 with a lot of fanfare, but two sensational performances at Gulfstream Park this season have vaulted the colt atop the sophomore ranks in a short time.

The Todd Pletcher trainee fetched a bid of $500,000 at a two-year-old sale and the investment has been well worth it. Bay colt made his stakes debut in February and left little doubt as to how talented he is, dominating the Holy Bull (G2) by 5 ½ lengths.

Sent postward as the 8-5 favorite in the Florida Derby (G1) next out and didn’t disappoint. Pilot John Velazquez called an ‘audible’ during the race -- taking the ever-improving sophomore off of swift early fractions. And the sophomore rallied with a powerful run approaching and through the stretch to leave his foes in his wake.

Audible has improved his BRIS Speed figure with every lifetime try, posting figures of 105 and 107 in 2018. The youngster has ripped off daylight wins in four straight.

What stands out to me about Audible is his versatility. A winner while pressing the pace in his yearly bow, Audible rallied from well back in the Florida Derby and proved that he can score from anywhere.

Known as a ‘lazy’ morning horse by his connections, Audible has thrived in the recent weeks by firing bullet drills in anticipation of his Kentucky Derby try. He also has room for improvement with just a pair of races under his belt this season.

Audible is not particularly bred to run all day, though when I watch him race, it doesn’t seem to matter. He has registered BRIS Late Pace numbers of 112 and 104 from a pair of two-turn tries.

And visually he gives no indication of a colt who is tiring at the end of his races. Audible likely gets some stamina influences through his second damsire, Gulch, as well as his third, Easy Goer.

The value could be there for Audible, as well. In nearly any other campaign, Audible would a fairly solid Kentucky Derby favorite. But in 2018, it’s more than possible that he could be the 4th choice at post time!

Prediction:
I have Audible on my short-list of potential Kentucky Derby winners. The athletic colt has push-button acceleration and did overcome a bit of adversity in rallying from well back in the Florida Derby.
In the Kentucky Derby, I expect to see the bay tracking near midpack early beneath Javier Castellano, before ranging up towards the front in early stretch. I consider Audible to be a must-use in the top-four slots of all wagers in this most competitive Run of the Roses.

Profile

Audible has won four straight races entering the Kentucky Derby including a pair of Derby prep stakes races. Audible joined the top ranks of contenders for the 2018 Kentucky Derby with an emphatic 5 ½-length win in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher entered Audible in the $1 million Florida Derby, and as the 8-5 favorite, Audible displayed a powerful move at the top of the stretch to race home a 3-length winner off a lightning fast pace.

The track at Gulfstream put speed at a disadvantage in the Florida Derby, and the flow and shape of the race favored a deep closer. Audible was 20 lengths from the lead at the first two calls combined, and his big move from the back was indicative of the track bias and also Audible’s superb speed. Audible registered a very strong BRIS Speed Rating of 107 in the Florida Derby, which followed a 105 in the Holy Bull. Audible won his maiden at Aqueduct and three weeks later in early December, he won an allowance race by more than 9 lengths. Audible has improved his BRIS speed and class rating in each of his races since his maiden debut in September, 2017 at Belmont Park.

Speed measures how fast a horse ran a particular race and is comparable across distance, surface, and location. Class measures competition within each race.  

Key Speed Figures and Stats for Audible

• Final 3/8 mile time in the Florida Derby :37.51 seconds
• Best BRIS Speed and Class Rating of 107 in Florida Derby
• Trainer Todd Pletcher is a 2-time Kentucky Derby winner including in 2017

Audible may have the right combination of tactical speed and closing ability while stretching out to 1 ¼ miles. His running style looks like a good fit with much speed and competitiveness in the 2018 Derby.   

Horses that are finishing strongly at the end of their prep races are more likely to handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ miles) than horses that are tiring at the end of their prep races. Each of the last six Kentucky Derby winners – and 16 of the last 21 – ran the last three-eighths of their final Derby prep race in less than 38 seconds. Audible finished the final 3/8 mile time in the Florida Derby in :37.51 seconds on a track that favored closers and deep stretch runners.

Audible makes his debut at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby, so follow how he’s working and training over the track leading up to the race. Note too that newly-inducted Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano will ride Audible in the Derby instead of Bolt d’ Oro. Castellano rode Audible in his Holy Bull win. Pedigree is not positive to get the Derby distance of 10 furlongs (1 ¼ miles), but his sire Into Mischief was the champion sire of 2-year-olds in 2016 and champion sire of 3-year-olds in 2017. However, Into Mischief has yet to sire a horse that’s won stakes races at more than 9 furlongs, and the distaff line for Audible offers very little classic distance support.

Pedigrees have been proven wrong before, so continue to analyze other factors like the strength of the race he’s exiting, noting that this year’s Florida Derby was solid, but not spectacular. His form and two stakes performances have been impressive, and Audible has shown improvement. Three of the last five Florida Derby winners went on to win the Kentucky Derby, and Audible has some positives in his profile and performances to suggest he could contend in the Run for the Roses.    

Learn more about Audible

BULL: Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile: Audible

BRISNET: Audible

Kentucky Derby Profile: Audible

Watch Audible's workout videos