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Queen's Plate Betting Guide 2018

Distance & Surface Are Part of Queen's Plate Handicapping Puzzle

by Ed DeRosa

Handicapping the biggest race of any track’s stakes program is a lot of fun because the rewards often go beyond the financial. I.e., in addition to winning money when correct, the handicapper also gets the glory of solving the puzzle under a spotlight.

Of course, the path to glory is often wrought with peril, and big races typically present unique challenges to handicappers.

The Queen’s Plate at Woodbine is no different, as the 1 ¼-mile distance on the synthetic Tapeta surface are two variables that might be new to the horses and handicappers.

Going back to November 6, 2013, I have 4,114 races in my Brisnet.com ALLWAYS database, and 34 of them (0.8%) have been non maiden races at least 1 ¼ miles on a synthetic surface. That’s a small size in relation to the total number of races, but isn’t completely awful in terms of trying to determine how these races are run.

One thing ALLWAYS does is looks at the relation between early pace and finishing ability, and helps identify the running style best-suited to a particular race. E.g., some races you want a speedball, others you want more endurance.

For long routes on the Woodbine synthetic surface, you want a combination of both. Just winging it through too-fast a pace won’t get the job done, but being forwardly placed and being able to sustain a reality is a premium skill. I.e. a combination of the best of both dirt and turf racing.

That’s not to say you can’t win gate-to-wire, though it does not happen very often (only 16% of two-turn races this year have been won in this fashion), but my preferred Queen’s Plate trip would be midpack through fast fractions and then outkick the deep closers for home.

Another interesting stat from ALLWAYS is that back speed does better than last-out speed from Impact Value and Return On Investment perspectives. I.e., a player will fare better playing the best Speed Rating on the PPs versus the best Speed Rating from the last race. This is actually the opposite of the Kentucky Derby.

This is actually good news for bettors, because you’re more likely to get a good price on back number than the last number. A few other observations from the ALLWAYS database of non-maiden races going at least 1 1/4 miles on synthetic at Woodbine:

• Dirt form is more predictive than turf form. Synthetic has a
“turf” reputation, but horses who have better dirt records have
done better in these types of races than horses with good turf
records but poor dirt records.

• From a horsemen perspective, the trainer and jockey have
had similar impact on wagering results. The good ones don’t
win any more or less than they do other races, and the notso-
good ones don’t become miracle workers because of the
distance or class. I.e., focus on the horse.

• Almost every horse racing in a 1 ¼-mile race (especially as
a three-year-old) raced at a different distance last out. This
is a good thing. Avoid horses who have been in long routes
before the Queen’s Plate (with the Kentucky Derby being an
exception).

Speaking of horsemen, it’s worth noting that Eurico De Silva, a leading rider at Woodbine regardless of race type, is 6-for-18 in synthetic stakes in 2017 at Woodbine heading into the Queen's Plate, with an addition half dozen placings. Jesse Campbell, however, is 0-for-19 in these scenarios despite being a 16% rider otherwise heading into the 2017 Queen's Plate.

Things are spread around even more among trainers with 13 conditioners having won added money events in 2017 at Woodbine. Mark Casse led with 3, but his percentage was soft versus his overall numbers. Similarly, Michael DePaulo was a 14% trainer overall but winless in stakes.

Queen’s Plate weekend begins Friday, June 30, with racing Friday and Saturday, moved from Sunday. The Queen’s Plate card features guaranteed pools in both Pick 5s and Pick 4s.

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At a Glance Current Meet Woodbine Statistics as of June 25, 2018

WOODBINE AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 5.08 – 1
Favorite Win%: 35%, Favorite Itm%: 75%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	77.71
Daily Double	93.91
Trifecta	526.16
Pick 3	845.13
Superfecta	3,073.66
Pick 4	6,898.16
Pick 5	55,737.10
Super High Five Jackpot	67,340.85

TRACK BIAS MEET(04/21 – 06/24) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts   5.0fDirt 41 39% E Rail   6.0fDirt 51 24% E/P Middle   1 1/16mDirt 55 24% E/P Mid/Out   Turf Sprint 42 24% E/P Middle   Turf Routes 29 17% E/P Rail/Ins

TRACK BIAS WEEK(06/18 – 06/24) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts   5.0fDirt 5 40% E/P Rail   6.0fDirt 4 25% S Middle   1 1/16mDirt 11 27% E/P Middle   Turf Sprint 4 25% E/P Rail/Ins   Turf Routes 4 25% E/P Ins/Mid

Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’17-‘ 18 Win%
Maker Michael J.	5	3	0	0	2.75	2	19%
Villeneuve Francine A.	3	2	1	0	3.00	1	20%
Silvera Laurie	5	2	1	0	14.10	0	17%
Carroll Josie	6	2	0	2	5.33	0	19%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’17-‘ 18 Win%
Garcia Alan	9	3	1	1	7.33	0	12%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’17-‘ 18 Win%
De Paulo Michael P.	14	0	0	2	18.09	0	10%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’17-‘ 18 Win%
Alderson Jeffrey Ian	11	0	2	1	23.82	0	6%

At a Glance Source

 

More on the Queen's Plate:

The 2017 Queen's Plate Betting Guide PDF

BRISnet page of stories on the Queen's Plate

BRIS Trainer/Jockey Stats Last 60 Days June 26, 2018

BRIS Trainer Stats Last 60 Days June 26, 2018