Kentucky Downs Scouting Report for Sept. 8

Kentucky Downs Scouting Report for Wednesday, September 8, 2021

With the turf course drying out for day two of the Kentucky Downs September meet, not one of the 11 winners took the field gate to wire. The vast majority stalked from mid-pack, and the final two winners of the day rallied from far off the pace going a mile. The outcomes were much more predictable, with a 16-1 winner in race three the only outlier on a day that saw all the others pay out at 6-1 or less.

Dominate is not a strong enough word to describe with Joel Ro$ario is doing at Kentucky Downs right now. He’s won five races on each of the first two days, and on Monday he scored for four different operations with Wesley Ward carving out the only training double of the day. Brian Hernandez, Jr., who also seems to have a good feel for the course, also scored a pair of riding wins. Ro$ario only has mounts in six of the ten races, and he doesn’t appear to be quite as live, so perhaps a few of the other jockeys will be able to pay some bills today.

The rail moves for the first time for Wednesday’s card, from 40 feet out down to 20. There will be two paths of fresh grass down on the inside, and the turf continues to get firmer. Theoretically, that’s the place the riders will want to be, so watch the early races to see if inside positions (and speed) are potentially more of an advantage.

With the top pick listed first, “A” horses are in order or preference. The takeout on the Pick Fours (14%) and Pick Fives (15%) is super fan friendly, so let’s try to take advantage, but also focus on individual horses that you like because chances are the price is right!

1^st Race – Pick Five starts here

#3 Morocco has a Kentucky Downs win on his resume, and he looks like a bit of a standout based on recent form and overall credentials. Looks like Steve Asmussen claimed him with this spot in mind.

A – 3

B – 4

C – 8, 10

 

2^nd Race – Pick Four starts here

#6 Mark of the Z is proven in turf sprints and he’s sharp as a tack right now. The only question is the elongated 6 ½ furlong distance, but the under the radar connections should give us an uptick in the odds.

A – 4, 6, 8

B – 10

C – 1

 

3^rd Race

#3 Royal Tryst’s form doesn’t look great, particularly his recent non-effort at Saratoga. There are some hints of talent mixed in there, particularly the fourth place run two starts back behind a talent trio at Churchill. At the expected price, that’s enough to give him a serious look.

A – 1, 3

B – 4

C – 5, 6, 7, 8

 

4^th Race – Pick Four starts here

One year ago, at Kentucky Downs, #8 Don’task Don’ttell scored a gate-to-wire win under these same conditions with Julien Leparoux up. He’s only raced three times since, but enters this assignment off a dominant score at Lone Star Park.

A – 4, 8, 9

B – 3, 5

C – 1, 2

 

5^th Race

Eligible for a first-level allowance, #5 Tiberius Mercurius held his own in a pair of New York turf stakes this past spring. He endured a wide trip over shorter distance in his most recent start, which darkens his form. He possesses tactical speed and Brian Hernandez, Jr. a good fit.

A – 1, 5, 6, 8

C – 9, 10, 12

 

6^th Race – Pick Five starts here

#8 Breeze Rider was beaten only two lengths in Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Mile. She possesses natural speed and employs.  a good, forward rider in E. T. Baird. She should offer a square price for under the radar connections.

A – 6, 8

B – 1

C – 2, 3, 4, 9

 

7^th Race – Pick Four starts here

Stakes placed at Kentucky Downs as a 2-year-old, #6 Ask Bailey ran a better than it looks sixth in last year’s Dueling Grounds Oaks. She broke slowly and was hung wide on the turn for home off the bench at Ellis last out, further darkening her form. Fresh off his Saratoga riding title, Luis Saez jumps.

A – 2, 3, 4, 6

B – 5, 12

 

8^th Race

#4 Kentucky Ghost scratched out of Mint Millions Mile, but he beat the race winner Pixelate in a recent turf encounter. He finished a strong second behind an odds on favorite at Kentucky Downs last year, and he stepped up his game big time since.

A – 4, 9

B – 7

C – 5, 6, 8, 10

 

9^th Race

#2 Mr Dumas showed speed and ran like a horse who needed the race last out. He’s been returned to the barn of trainer John Ortiz, who developed him early in his career, and his inside post could put him in an advantageous, tactical position today.

A – 2, 8, 10

B – 7, 9

 

10^th Race

She’s 9-2 in the morning line, but #9 Cailin Diana looks like a bit of a standout here. She finished a solid second in her two-turn debut last out at Ellis, and Tunerloose, the filly who beat her, returned to dominant the Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs on opening weekend. 

A – 1, 1a, 9

B – 2, 4

C – 9