Saratoga Scouting Report July 19: Kentucky Horses

Saratoga will feature a 10-race program Sunday, with the $150,000 Lake Placid (G2) for 3-year-old turf fillies the main event.

As the racing analyst at Churchill Downs, it’s my job to provide information you can’t necessarily read in the past performances. I keep detailed track bias, pace and trip notes for every race, every day, and that information can prove to be quite valuable, particularly when horses travel from one circuit to another.

For the entirety of the Saratoga meet, I will provide “scouting reports” for the horses who raced in Kentucky in their most recent start.

Race 4

#3 Candy Cornell             1-1 ML

Racing into a fast pace while in the clear two then three-wide, he had aim on the front runner late, but could not get past late while running on strongly to the wire. He was second behind another sharp front runner in the race prior at Oaklawn, and drops into a sweet spot for this. A worthy single in multi-race wagers.

#4 Queen’s Mason          10-1 ML

Two starts back on June 6, he broke alertly from the starting gate, pressed into a fast pace, took over off the turn, and drew away while racing on the wrong lead. Stepped up in class last out, he was once again very alert away from the starting gate, got a perfect, pressing trip into an honest pace, led off the turn, and dug in gamely late when challenged the final eighth of a mile. He steps up off the claim into a tougher spot and will need yet another move forward to compete for the win. It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

#6 Twelfth Labor              5-2 ML

Two back in a two turn race around a pair of bends, he raced in the two then three-path while in the clear, but came up flat. Cut back to a sprint last out, he ran in the two-path while in the clear, was nudged on the turn while hung four-wide and stayed on late behind a sharp winner. He fits well and should find clear sailing from the outside post.

Race 5

#6 Count Frost 20-1  ML

Debuting in a weak $75,000 maiden claimer, he was reluctant to load the starting gate, race in the clear while three then four-wide, and had little to give in the stretch. The debut was not encouraging.

Race 6

#3 Lusitano         12-1 ML

Off a 10-week layoff over a one-turn mile on May 29, he got a perfect pressing trip into a hot pace and led at the top of the stretch before giving way very late. Stretched out around two turns on turf four weeks later, he got a perfect, pressing trip into fast fractions, lost ground on the turn while four-wide and finished evenly. I honestly thought he’d run better that day. This race has a lot more depth to it and he appears to be up against it.

#11 Zero Gravity              4-1 ML

Two starts back, he was able to save ground near the back of the pack while a hot pace developed in front of him. He had dead aim on the leaders in the stretch and got up in time while racing on the wrong lead. Four weeks later in what was a very average race for the level, he was once again out the back early while in a clear position with hot fractions developing in front of him. He had aim late, but the winner surged late and he dead-heated for place. With wonderful set-ups in the last two starts, he probably looks better on paper than he actually is.

Race 9

#6 Stunning Sky                3-1 ML

Trailing early over a turf course that slightly favored speed, she found herself racing in a claustrophobic position much of the journey before finishing with some energy late. That Regret (G3) looks tougher than the Lake Placid (G2) has turned out to be, and she looks to be as good as any in the field.